Reference Date: 19-August-2025

Mixed performance of 2025 seasonal rains

Southern Ghana, including the middle zone, experiences a bimodal rainfall pattern. Consequently, harvesting of the 2025 main season maize crop is ongoing and will conclude in September, while harvesting operations of the 2025 rice crop are expected to take place between September and October. The first rainy season, which normally extends from March to July, had a generally timely onset and was characterized by average cumulative rainfall amounts, supporting crop development. However, in some areas, especially in the Brong Ahafo and Ashanti regions, dry spells in July affected crops, likely resulting in localized production shortfalls.

In northern unimodal rainfall areas, sowing of the 2025 cereal crops took place between May and July. A favourable start to the rainy season in May was followed by dry spells in July, which affected planting operations and crop establishment. In northern parts of the Upper West Region and northeastern areas of the Northern Region, remote sensing data indicate poor vegetation conditions as of end of July.

Weather forecasts for August point to near‑average precipitation amounts across the country, which are expected to boost soil moisture levels, except in southwestern areas, where below‑average rainfall amounts are expected. However, in September, below‑average precipitation amounts are forecast in most regions, with a likely negative impact on yields, while near‑average rainfall amounts are expected in southernmost areas.

Above‑average cereal production in 2024

The 2024 aggregate cereal production is officially estimated at about 6.2 million tonnes, approximately 27 percent above the average of the previous five years. This increase is mainly attributed to government interventions implemented in response to a severe dry spell between June and August 2024, which caused significant yield losses. Measures included the distribution of early‑maturing maize and rice seeds and fertilizers to smallholder farmers as well as the provision of fertilizers and interest‑free loans to commercial farmers.

Annual inflation rate decreasing, but still at high levels

According to Ghana Statistical Services, the annual inflation rate fell to 12.1 percent in July 2025, continuing the downward trend observed since January 2025 and marking a decline from 20.9 percent a year earlier, reflecting decreases in both food and non‑food inflation. Tight monetary policy, the appreciation of the local currency and easing global commodity prices contributed to the disinflation in 2025.

About 2 million people acutely food insecure between June and August 2025

According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 2 million people (6 percent of the analyzed population) are estimated to be facing acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2025 lean season period, including over 122 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This figure is nearly double than a year earlier, when approximately 1.05 million people (3 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. The deterioration is mainly due to macroeconomic challenges, including high food and non‑food inflation rates.The negative impact of dry spells on the 2024 crop production has also exacerbated food insecurity, particularly in the north, including the Northern, Northeast, Savannah, Upper East and Upper West regions, where an estimated 12 to 19 percent of the population is acutely food insecure, representing the highest prevalence in the country. Furthermore, multiple consecutive years of reduced cocoa output, the country’s main cash crop, have caused significant livelihood losses in central and southern regions, worsening local food insecurity conditions.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/.

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .