Reference Date: 29-September-2026

Insecurity and high fuel prices continue to strain food supply chains in 2026

The humanitarian situation remained dire in 2026 amid deteriorating security conditions. Armed groups continued to expand their control beyond the Port‑au‑Prince metropolitan area into Artibonite, Centre and South-East departments, despite the deployment of the UN‑ backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) beginning in April. Insecurity continued to weigh on economic activity, which is forecast to contract for the eighth consecutive year in 2026, further impairing already fragile socioeconomic conditions and limiting access to food, essential services and humanitarian assistance. Ongoing violence has continued to force people to flee their homes, with about 1.5 million internally displaced people (IDPs) reported by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) as of August 2026, representing a 14 percent increase compared to the previous year.

Food supply chains remain under pressure, as insecurity and high production costs continue to disrupt agricultural activities and contribute to farmland abandonment. Illegal roadblocks along major transport routes severely restrict the movement of goods and people, reducing market supplies and exerting upward pressures on prices. The government’s decision to raise diesel and gasoline prices by 37 percent and 29 percent, respectively, in April 2026, further increased production, transport and distribution costs, reflecting higher international prices linked to the Middle ‑East conflict.

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, a record‑ high number of over 5.83 million people (52 percent of the analysed population) are estimated to face severe levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between March and June 2026, the highest level recorded since IPC analyses were first conducted in the country in 2013. The deterioration reflects the combined effects of worsening socioeconomic and security conditions, rising food prices and limited food access. Food insecurity was further aggravated by the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which hit the country in October 2025, disrupting livelihoods and essential facilities and causing losses of autumn food stocks in southern regions.

El Niño‑related dry weather conditions constrain maize and paddy production prospects in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 main spring maize and paddy crops is nearing completion and output is anticipated at below‑average levels. Escalating insecurity in key producing department of Artibonite constrained agricultural activities, while rising production costs continued to discouraging plantings, resulting in land abandonment in some areas. In addition, the onset of El Niño‑related drought conditions in May 2026 was associated with below‑average and unevenly distributed precipitation amounts, compounded by above‑average temperatures across the country. The resulting soil moisture deficits hampered land preparation, delayed the start of sowing operations and adversely affected crops during crucial growth stages, reducing yields prospects.

Prospects for the winter‑ season maize and paddy crops, which are currently at early stages of development, are also unfavourable. Weather forecast point to high likelihood of erratic rains and high temperatures until the end of the year, associated with the ongoing El Niño event, further constraining crop production prospects.

Cereal import requirements forecast above average for the fifth consecutive year in 2026/27

The country relies on imports to meet about 70 percent of its cereal consumption needs, with wheat and rice sourced mainly from the United States of America. Cereal imports requirements in 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at more than 1 million tonnes, slightly above the previous year’s level and about 15 percent above the five‑year average, consolidating a growing trend for the fifth consecutive year. The elevated import needs reflect the increasing domestic demand by population growth, coupled with a decline in domestic cereal production.

Food prices above five‑year average weaken purchasing power of households

Since peaking at 35.1 percent in October 2025, annual food inflation has generally declined, reaching 19 percent in July 2026. This mainly reflects the stability of the gourde against the United States dollar, compounded by the suspension of monetary financing of the public deficit. However, food prices remain well above their five ‑year average levels, continuing to erode household purchasing power.

Between May and July 2026, retail prices of domestically produced maize meal and black beans were generally stable or declined seasonally across the markets, reflecting improved availability from the spring harvest. The downward pressure on prices was also supported by two partial reductions in diesel and gasoline prices implemented by the government in May and July 2026, following the sharp increase in fuel prices in April. Over the same period, prices of imported food commodities, including rice, wheat flour and vegetable oil, remained broadly stable across markets, supported by the stable national currency rate and stable import supplies, but were generally high due to contracting purchasing power.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .