Reference Date: 04-December-2025

About half of analysed population acutely food insecure

Security conditions continued to deteriorate in 2025, with the expansion of gang violence into areas that were previously more secure, further constraining access to livelihood opportunities and essential services, causing disruptions to market activities and logistics, and limiting delivery of humanitarian assistance. The heightened violence is also causing internal displacements, with about 1.4 million people that fled their homes from December 2024 to September 2025 , significantly up from about the 703 000 people a year earlier. Additional displacements were recorded in October and November, following armed attacks in Artibonite and West departments.

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, nearly 5.7 million people are estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above [Crisis or worse]) between September 2025 and February 2026, corresponding to 50 percent of the analysed population, with a year‑on‑year increase of about 300 000 people. Over 1.9 million people are reported to face levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4 [Emergency]). From March to June 2026, during the lean season, food security is expected to further deteriorate as economy and security conditions are likely to continue worsening, with 5.9 million people projected in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse (above), the highest number since the first IPC analysis in 2013.

Cereal production expected at below‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 second (minor) season paddy and maize crops are underway. Planted area is estimated to further contract compared to the five‑year average, due to high costs of agricultural inputs and labour, exacerbated by escalating armed violence hampering agricultural activities. In September and October 2025, heavy rainfall caused flooding in several departments, damaging crops and livestock. At the end of October, Hurricane Melissa affected agricultural livelihoods and infrastructures in Sud, Sud-Est, Nippes, Grand'Anse and Artibonite departments, where operations of land preparation of the 2025 third (minor) season crops have been delayed. Elsewhere, abundant rains improved soil moisture levels and benefitted crop conditions. Planting operations of the third (minor) season maize and paddy crops are expected to conclude in December and the area sown is expected to be below the average level. Overall, aggregate cereal production in 2025, including the harvest of the main season crops that were affected by dry weather conditions, is expected at a below‑average level.

Cereal import requirements for 2025/26 marketing year forecast at above‑average level

Imports usually cover over 70 percent of total cereal consumption needs. In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), cereal import requirements, mostly wheat and rice, are forecast at about 1 million tonnes, stable year‑on‑year and around 10 percent above the five‑year average.

High food inflation erodes purchasing power and limits access to food

Inflation has been in double digits since 2016 and, as of 2025, food prices remain high, with the annual food inflation rate at 35.1 percent in September 2025. Persistently high food prices continue to erode households’ purchasing power and limit their access to food.

Retail prices of domestically produced black beans and maize meal were mostly stable in August and September 2025 in Port‑au‑Prince, reflecting improved seasonal supply from the main season harvest. Similarly, markets in other regions such as Artibonite, Centre, Grand Sud and Grand Nord are reported to be supplied with local harvests. Regarding imported food items, higher year‑on‑year imports in 2025 kept prices of wheat flour stable between July and September 2025. Similarly, prices of imported rice were mostly steady due to stable or weakening international quotations. Overall, prices of most food items remain largely above their five‑year average.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .