Reference Date: 04-March-2025

Favourable production prospects for 2025 main paddy and maize crops

Harvesting of the 2025 main first paddy crop, accounting for about 55 percent of annual production, is ongoing and will conclude at the end of March. Sowings are estimated to have recovered from last year’s reduced levels, supported by attractive domestic prices of rice at planting time and official incentive measures aimed at supporting paddy production, including subsidized seeds and fertilizers. The rainy season, which extends from November to March, was characterized by average to above-average cumulative rainfall amounts and generally favourable spatial and temporal distribution, supporting crop development in most parts of the country. As of late January 2025, remote sensing data indicates satisfactory vegetation conditions in most of the country (ASI map), inferring generally favourable yield prospects for the paddy crop. Localized crop damages occurred in eastern, northeastern and central parts of the country due to floods and landslides caused by heavy rains last December and January. Planting of the 2025 mostly irrigated second crop, accounting for about 25 percent of annual production, will start in April. Irrigation water availability in the main reservoirs is reported to be adequate. The 2025 third paddy crop, accounting for about 20 percent of annual output, will be planted from next August.

Harvesting of the 2025 main maize crop will be completed in March and production prospects are favourable. The area planted is estimated to be close to the 2024 above-average level, driven by the strong domestic demand of the feed sector, while favourable weather conditions have benefited yields. The 2025 off-season maize crop, for harvest from July, will be planted from April onwards.

Below-average paddy production harvested in 2024

The 2024 paddy cropping season finalized last December with the harvest of the third crop and the aggregate 2024 paddy production is estimated at 52.7 million tonnes, below the previous five-year average, due to reduced output of the main crop which was affected by dry weather conditions linked to El Niño between November 2023 and May 2024.

Production of the 2024 maize crop, harvested last September, is official estimated at a near-average level of 15.1 million tonnes as large sowings driven by strong demand of the poultry industry were almost entirely offset by reduced yields due to dryness.

Wheat import requirements forecast at above-average level in 2024/25

Total cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a record level of 17.5 million tonnes. Imports of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports, are forecast at a high level of 11.5 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increasing domestic consumption of wheat‑based food products. Imports of rice in the 2025 calendar year are forecast at 1.9 million tonnes. Imports of maize are forecast at a well above‑average level of 1.5 million tonnes due to strong demand by the poultry industry.

Prices of rice generally stable since mid-2024

Domestic prices of rice, the country’s main staple, gradually increased between August 2023 and March 2024, supported by below-average output harvested in 2023 and concerns about the effect of dry weather conditions on the 2024 main first crop. Then, between April and June 2024 prices declined, reflecting improved market availability with the commercialization of the 2024 first harvest and increased imports. Since June 2024, rice prices remained stable and were slightly above the high levels a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .