Reference Date: 24-November-2025

Persistent dry weather conditions hamper 2026 winter wheat plantings

Planting operations of the 2026 winter wheat crop, which began last September and are expected to continue until mid-November, have been hampered by below-average precipitation and depleted irrigation water reserves.

Cereal production estimated below average in 2025

Total cereal production in 2025 is estimated at about 20 million tonnes, nearly 10 percent below the five-year average. Harvest of the 2025 winter wheat was completed last July, with production estimated at 12.5 million tonnes, about 12 percent below the average mainly due to prolonged dry weather conditions throughout the season. Cereals are largely rainfed, making production highly dependent on rainfall volumes. Between December 2024 and May 2025, rainfall amounts were below the average through most producing areas, adversely affecting yields. In key producing province of Khuzestan, very low temperatures in late February during flowering and grain-filling stages damaged crops. Frequent power outages, particularly in irrigated areas, constrained farmers’ access to irrigation water. In addition, farmers faced challenges in securing inputs due to high prices of seeds and fertilizers.

Rice harvest was completed last September, with production estimated at a near-average level of 3.8 million tonnes as the above-average planted area compensated the negative effects on yields of limited availability of irrigation water.

Wheat import requirements forecast to be well below average in 2025/26 due to high carryover stocks from 2024 harvest

Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are preliminary forecast at 2 million tonnes, less than half of the five-year average, largely driven by high carryover stocks which were replenished with the above-average production harvested in 2024. However, maize import requirements are forecast at about 14 percent above the average, largely for the livestock and poultry sectors. The subsidized preferential currency rate to import essential goods will remain at IRR 28 500/USD for the 2025/26 fiscal year (March 21 to March 20), limiting inflationary pressure on imported agricultural commodities, including wheat. According to the latest data available, the subsidized rate is only about 60 percent lower than the market rate of IRR 750 000/USD in December 2024.

Cereal retail prices increased significantly in 2025 compared to the previous year

Retail wheat flour price in the Tehran market remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in October 2025, reflecting government subsidy measures aimed at stabilizing prices. However, the price was about 50 percent higher compared to the same period in 2024, following the reduction of government subsidies on wheat flour provided to bakeries in June 2025, which resulted in a 20 percent monthly price increase. The retail price of rice in Tehran has been increasing sharply since February 2025, reaching a record high level in October 2025, more than three times higher than in the same month last year.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .