Reference Date: 05-December-2025

Dry weather conditions hamper planting of 2026 winter cereals

Planting of the 2026 winter cereal crops is underway and is expected to be completed by the end of 2025. Planting operations have been constrained by dry weather conditions following minimal rainfall amounts since early October 2025.

Cereal production estimated well below average in 2025

Total cereal production in 2025 is estimated at about 67 000 tonnes, about 40 percent below the average, largely due to below‑average rainfall amounts and high temperatures that curtailed yields and caused crop losses. Earth observation data indicate that cumulative rainfall amounts between November 2024 and March 2025 were about 40 percent below the long‑term average.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Cereal import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are preliminarily forecast at 3.1 million tonnes, about 3 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting the country’s high reliance on imports, which on average cover nearly 70 percent of annual domestic consumption. The country also maintains strategic wheat and barley stocks equivalent to about ten and eight months, respectively, of local consumption with the aim to mitigate potential disruptions of the global supply chain.

Annual food inflation eased since mid‑2025

Annual food inflation eased since July 2025 and was estimated to be lower than 1 percent in October 2025. The subindices for cereals, bovine and poultry meat decreased by 0.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively, while those for fruits and nuts, as well as oil and fats increased by about 10 to 12 percent.

Food insecurity among refugees worsened in 2025 due to constraints of humanitarian funding

Although some Syrian refugees began to return to their home country following the political transition in 2024, about 320 000 refugees were estimated to face acute food insecurity as of September 2025, mainly due to humanitarian funding shortfalls and limited livelihood opportunities.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .