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Country Briefs

  Kazakhstan

Reference Date: 30-September-2022

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Near‑average cereal production forecast in 2022

  2. Cereal exports in 2022/23 forecast slightly below average

  3. Retail prices of wheat higher year on year

Near‑average cereal production forecast in 2022

Harvesting of the 2022 minor winter wheat crop was completed in August, while harvesting of the 2022 main spring wheat, barley and maize crops is ongoing under overall favourable weather conditions.

In the key wheat and barley producing northern regions, below‑average precipitation amounts in July 2022 negatively affected soil moisture levels and resulted in below‑average vegetation conditions in some crop lands (ASI map early August, right before the harvest).

The total 2022 wheat production, including winter and spring crops, is forecast at a near‑average level of 13.2 million tonnes, despite the large plantings, as the unfavourable weather conditions negatively affected yields. The 2022 barley output is forecast at 3 million tonnes, about 10 percent below the five‑year average level due to a gradual decline in plantings in recent years and the impact of dry weather conditions. Total cereal production is forecast at a near‑average level of 18 million tonnes.

Planting of the 2023 winter wheat crop is expected to take place in October and November in the main producing southern regions.

Cereal exports in 2022/23 forecast slightly below average

Total cereal exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 9 million tonnes, 5 percent below the average volume. Wheat exports are forecast at a near‑average level of 8 million tonnes, amid the average output expected in 2022 and the steady demand by importing countries. By contrast, barley exports are projected at 600 000 tonnes, well below the average volume.

On 13 September 2022, the government announced the immediate suspension of wheat and wheat flour export quotas. The restrictions had been originally introduced on 14 April until 15 June 2022 and later extended through 30 September 2022 ( FPMA Policy ).

Retail prices of wheat higher year on year

National average retail prices of first grade wheat flour remained overall stable or increased slightly between February 2021 and February 2022. From March 2022 onwards, prices increased steeply in line with seasonal trends, with further upward pressure provided by the introduction, on 14 March 2022, of a temporary ban of exports of wheat and other cereals from the Russian Federation to the countries within the Eurasian Economic Union FPMA Policy ). In August 2022, domestic retail prices of first grade wheat flour were 25 percent higher year on year.

Retail prices of potatoes, another food staple in the country, increased steeply between February and June 2022, and declined sharply in July and August, in line with the season’s patterns.

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