Reference Date: 12-March-2026

Winter wheat yields forecast to be near five‑year average

Harvesting of the 2026 minor winter wheat crop, which was planted between October and November 2025 in the main producing southern regions of Turkestan, Zhambyl and West Kazakhstan Region is expected to take place between June and August 2026. As of early 2026, the condition of winter crops is generally good, with minor losses (2–9 percent) reported in certain areas. According to the forecast of Kazhydromet, winter wheat yields are forecast to be near the five-year average level.

Planting of the 2026 major spring wheat crop is expected to begin in May in the main producing regions of Kostanay and Akmola, with harvesting forecast between August and September 2026.

Above‑average cereal production estimated in 2025

Total 2025 cereal production is estimated at about 23 million tonnes, above the five‑year average, driven by overall favourable weather conditions and an expanded planted area. Above‑average cumulative precipatation amounts in June and July 2025 improved soil moisture levels and boosted crop development. Aggregate production of spring and winter crops of wheat is estimated at 18 million tonnes in 2025, about 20 percent above the five-year average. Barley and maize outputs in 2025 are estimated at a near-average level of 3 million tonnes and 1 million tonnes, respectively.

Wheat exports forecast at above‑average level in 2025/26

Total cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 10 million tonnes, almost 20 percent above the five-year average, reflecting the above-average 2024 harvest and the sustained demand by key importing countries. Wheat and barley exports are forecast at 9 million tonnes and 1 million tonnes, respectively, supported by increased shipments, mainly to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan.

Prices of wheat increased year-on-year

Retail prices of locally produced first grade wheat flour remained mostly stable between September and December 2025, almost 5 percent above their year-earlier levels, reflecting national inflationary pressures. This increase was mitigated by ample domestic market availability following the positive 2024 harvest. Since March 2025, wheat export prices have followed an upward trend and by December 2025 they stood at nearly 20 percent above their year ‑ earlier levels, supported by strong global demand.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .