Reference Date: 28-November-2025

Paddy production estimated at below‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 paddy crop, the country’s main cereal, finalized in mid‑November, about two weeks later than usual. The total area planted is officially estimated below the five‑year average, as the government promoted cultivation of alternative crops, in response to the decreasing demand of rice for food use. Weather conditions during the cropping season were generally favourable and, according to remote sensing data, as of early September 2025, just before the harvest period, crop vegetation conditions were good (ASI Map). In September and early October 2025, unseasonal heavy rains in western main producing areas hampered harvesting operations and raised concerns about grain quality and potential post‑harvest losses. Harvesting of the 2025 maize crop finalized in October and production is forecast close to the five‑year average. Harvesting of the 2025 mostly irrigated wheat and barley crops finalized in June 2025 and production of both crops is estimated well below the average. The low outputs mainly reflect a contraction in plantings due to excessive soil moisture at sowing time caused by heavy rains in October and November 2024, especially in southern areas where about 40 percent of the wheat and 85 percent of the barley crops are grown. In addition, frost episodes in February and March 2025 caused some localized crops losses and reduced the quality of wheat grain in some areas.

Cereal import requirements in 2025/26 marketing year forecast slightly above average

Total cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), are forecast at the slightly above‑average 17 million tonnes. Imports of maize, that account for the largest share of the total cereal imports, are projected at 11.7 million tonnes, slightly above average. Wheat imports are forecast at average 4.6 million tonnes. In calendar year 2025, imports of rice are forecast at 370 000 tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .