Reference Date: 23-July-2025

Below‑average cereal harvest expected in 2025 due to prolonged drought conditions

Harvesting of the 2025 cereal crop started last May. For wheat, it was completed by June, while barley harvesting is expected to continue up to end-July. Cumulative rainfall amounts during the winter season, from December 2024 to February 2025, were more than 60 percent below the long‑term average in key producing regions, including Fes‑Bouleman, Gharb, Grand Casablanca and Tanger Tetouan. This marks the second consecutive year of drought conditions in the country, affecting successive harvests which in turn may have further impacts on stock levels. Although late and abundant rainfall in March and April 2025 partially restored soil moisture levels, cereal production is forecast at about 4 million tonnes, about 27 percent below the average.

Above‑average cereal imports are forecast in 2025/26 driven by low local production for the second consecutive year

Preliminary cereal import requirements for the marketing year 2025/26 (July/June) are forecast at 11 million tonnes, more than 20 percent above average, given the low domestic production in 2024 and the anticipated below‑average 2025 cereal harvest. The government extended the wheat import subsidy measure, which was initially effective until April 2025, until the end of the year, aiming to stabilize soft wheat prices and ensure an adequate supply of wheat flour for bread production.

Food inflation remained low in 2025

Annual food inflation in May 2025 was at 0.4 percent, down from 0.7 percent in April, marking the lowest rate since October 2024. This was driven by price declines in vegetables, fish, meat, bread and cereals.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .