Reference Date: 18-March-2026

Harvest of winter wheat crops expected to begin in July 2026

Sowing of 2026 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, was delayed due to prolonged rainfall in October and was, therefore,completed in November, resulting in a planted area below the average. Crops are currently in the dormancy phase and snow cover was reported to be sufficient to protect them from frost damage, while ensuring adequate soil moisture for crop development and for the planting of 2026 spring crops.

The harvest of winter cereals is expected to take place between July and August 2026. Planting of the 2026 maize crop, to be harvested from October, is scheduled to start in May. Sowing of other spring cereals, mostly barley, will begin in March, with harvesting expected between August and September 2026.

Below-average cereal production obtained in 2025

Harvesting of 2025 winter cereal crops finalized in August, while the harvest of spring‑planted crops concluded in November. According to preliminary official estimates, aggregate 2025 cereal output is set at about 2.2 million tonnes, below the five‑year average. Maize production is estimated at a below‑average level of 860 000 tonnes, reflecting a reduced planted area and the adverse impact of high temperatures, and low rainfall amounts between May and July 2025, which constrained crop development and depressed yields, particularly in central and southern main producing regions. Wheat production is estimated at around 1.15 million tonnes, near the five‑year average.

Total cereal exports in 2025/26 forecast below average

Total cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 1 million tonnes, almost 30 percent below the five-year average. The significant reduction is mainly due to the below-average maize production harvested in 2024 and 2025, which limited the exportable supply.

Prices of wheat flour near previous year’s level as of January 2026

According to official estimates from the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), the national annual inflation rate stood at 6.8 percent in 2025 and is projected to decline to 5 percent in 2026 and to 4.5 percent in 2027, largely driven by domestic macroeconomic developments.

National average retail prices of wheat flour increased steadily from August 2024 to April 2025, then followed a stable trend until December 2025. In January 2026, prices declined by 4 percent month‑on‑month and were close to their year‑earlier levels, supported by an adequate domestic wheat supply.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .