Reference Date: 06-August-2025

Recovery in 2025 cereal production following drought‑reduced 2024 harvest

Cereal production in 2025, including a forecast for the winter wheat crop, is expected to have recovered from the drought-reduced outturn in 2024 and is pegged close to the five‑year average. The anticipated year‑on‑year increase in production is largely attributed to a recovery in yields supported by ample and mostly well-distributed precipitation amounts, particularly in the second half of the summer cropping season between January and April 2025. In addition, the beneficial rainfall also supported a moderate upturn in the area planted to cereals. This follows significant and widespread rainfall deficits that led to a sharply reduced harvest in 2024.

Cereal import requirements expected to decline in 2025/26 marketing year

The country is a net importer of cereals, with imports accounting, on average, for about two‑thirds of the total national consumption requirement. Reflecting the anticipated recovery in domestic production in 2025, cereal import needs in the 2025/26 marketing year (May/April) are estimated to decrease from the elevated level in 2024/25, when a well above‑average volume of 290 000 tonnes of maize was imported to compensate for the shortfall in production in 2024. Cereal production in South Africa and across the subregion also recovered in 2025, providing increased export availability, which has contributed to lower wholesale prices, to the benefit of import‑dependent countries.

Food inflation increases in 2025, driven by rising costs of meat, fruit and vegetables

The annual food inflation rate was estimated at 6.4 percent in June 2025, up from 4.3 percent in the corresponding month of 2023. The increase was largely driven by rising prices of meat, fruit and vegetables, while prices of bread and cereals, key staple foods, rose at a slower pace over the same period. Cereal prices could ease further in 2025, reflecting the anticipated improvements in both domestic and regional cereal outputs.

Acute food insecurity could improve in 2025/26

During the peak of the lean season between January and March 2025, an estimated 1.26 million people (41 percent of the analyzed population) faced severe acute food insecurity (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification [IPC] Phase 3 [Crisis] or above). This figure is almost double the level of the same period in 2023/24 and reflects the negative impact of the drought on 2024 crop production, which led to a significant reduction of households’ food stocks. This number is estimated to have declined to 776 000 people between April and June 2025, amid the harvest period, reflecting improved food availability and income-earning opportunities. Given the overall recovery in production in 2025 and expected easing of cereal prices, the number of people facing acute food insecurity during the next lean season, from January to March 2026, is expected to be lower than the levels observed in early 2025.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .