Reference Date: 16-February-2024

Cereal production in 2023 forecast at average level

The 2023 third beans “apante” crop, which accounts for about 35 percent of the annual production, is currently at vegetative and flowering stages, and satellite imagery indicates no drought‑related stress to crops (ASI map). However, below‑average rainfall amounts forecast in February could curtail yield prospects of crops that will be harvested in March. According to official estimates, the 2023 aggregate red beans output is expected to be above average and similar to the production attained in 2022.

The 2023 cereal production is forecast at average of 871 000 tonnes. After a decline in 2020, maize output has been on the rise and is expected to reach an average level of 385 000 tonnes, including the minor third crop that will be harvested next March. Paddy production is estimated at an above‑average level of 440 000 tonnes, reflecting an increased use of high yielding varieties and an expansion of the area sown. The 2023 sorghum output is expected at 46 000 tonnes, about 20 percent below the five‑year average. This is the result of a contraction in plantings, as prices of sorghum declined significantly in January 2023 and remained at generally lower yearon‑year levels throughout the year.

Planting of the 2024 main season maize will start in May. Weather forecasts point to above‑average rainfall amounts between March and May, which is likely to replenish soil moisture and benefit planting operations.

Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (September/August) are forecast at an above‑average level of 735 000 tonnes, reflecting the sustained domestic demand for yellow maize by the feed industry.

Prices of maize and beans lower year‑on‑year in January 2024

Wholesale prices of white maize and red beans declined at the end of 2023 with improved seasonal availabilities and, as of January 2024, prices were lower year‑on‑year. Prices of rice strengthened throughout 2023 and were 5 percent above their year‑earlier levels in January 2024. Despite the above‑average paddy harvest in 2023, strong domestic demand and elevated international prices contributed to higher year‑on‑year prices of rice.

The annual inflation rate of food items was 7.3 percent in December 2023, down from 15.9 percent a year ago. In 2024, the inflation rate is forecast to decline further to 5 percent , likely improving access to food for the most vulnerable households.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .