Reference Date: 02-August-2024

Planting of 2024 paddy crop almost completed

Planting of the 2024 paddy crop started in mid-June. Following scarce precipitation amounts from April until mid-June, rains resumed from late June and average to above average amounts improved soil moisture conditions for planting and benefited crop establishment and development. In the southern Terai plains, where the bulk of the paddy crop is grown, heavy rains triggered flash floods and landslides in mid-July, causing localized crop losses and damage to housing and agricultural infrastructure. Overall, sowings are forecast at an above-average level, supported by attractive domestic prices of rice. Remote sensing data, as of early July 2024, indicates favourable vegetation conditions across most cropping areas, suggesting favourable yield prospects (see green areas in ASI map). Harvesting of the 2024 maize crop is ongoing and will be concluded in September. Production is forecast at a slightly below-average level, mostly reflecting a contraction in sowings due to dry weather conditions at planting time. Yields are forecast below average in parts of the country. However, some farmers were able to reduce the negative effects of the dryness on maize crops by pumping water from the irrigation canals, with the government subsidizing about 60 percent of the electricity costs. Production of the 2024 wheat crop, harvested last June, is estimated at average 2.1 million tonnes.

According to weather forecasts, there is a high likelihood of above‑average precipitation amounts between August and October 2024 over most of the country. If this forecast materializes, rains will benefit late planting and development of paddy crops. For maize crop, the expected abundant rains will coincide with the crop maturation and harvesting stages, possibly diminishing yields and constraining harvesting operations.

Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 marketing year forecast at below‑average level

Cereal imports requirements, mostly rice, cover about 15 percent of the national consumption needs. Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 1.4 million tonnes, 7 percent below the five-year average. Imports of rice are forecast at 630 000 tonnes in the 2024 calendar year. Import requirements of maize and wheat are forecast at an average 550 000 tonnes and 225 000 tonnes, respectively.

Record high prices of rice in June 2024

Domestic retail prices of rice, country’s main staple food, has been on rise since early 2023 and, as of June 2024, they were at record levels and about 30 percent higher year-on-year. The increases came amid strong local demand and reductions in imports since 2023, occurring in the context of export restrictions imposed by India, its main rice supplier. Persistent high domestic food prices have diminished the purchasing power of vulnerable households, limiting their access to food.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .