Reference Date: 02-December-2025

Cereal production forecast at slightly below‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 paddy crop is ongoing and is expected to conclude in December. Production is forecast at 5.4 million tonnes, slightly below the average, mainly due to a contraction in the area sown following rainfall deficits in June and July 2025, which hampered planting operations in key rice producing areas of southeast Madhesh Province, particularly in districts of Mahottari, Dhanusa and Siraha. In the remaining rice producing areas, cumulative rainfall amounts between June and October 2025 were generally adequate to support planting operations and to satisfy crop water requirements, supporting yields. Production of the 2025 maize crop, harvested in October, is forecast at 3 million tonnes, slightly below the average, mainly due to the impact of dryness on the extent of area planted and on yields in southeastern parts of the country. Floods and landslides in October caused some localized crop losses in minor cereal producing areas in the north. Production of the 2025 wheat crop, harvested in June, is estimated at an average level of 2.1 million tonnes.

Cereal import requirements in 2025/26 marketing year forecast at above‑average level

Cereal imports, mostly rice, account for about 15 percent of the national consumption needs. Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, about 20 percent above the average. Imports of rice in the 2026 calendar year are forecast at 920 000 tonnes, well above the average, reflecting the below‑average output in 2025 and strong domestic demand, driven by population growth and an anticipated year‑on‑year increase in tourist arrivals. Import requirements of maize and wheat are forecast at an average level of 550 000 tonnes and 225 000 tonnes, respectively.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .