Reference Date: 13-October-2025

Paddy and yellow maize production forecast at above‑average level in 2025

Paddy crops are harvested all year round, with about 65 percent of the total output concentrated between March and July 2025. Paddy outturn harvested between January and July 2025 is officially estimated at 2.6 million tonnes, about 3 percent above the average. This is due to above‑average harvested area, while yields have been slightly below average due to abundant rainfall amounts. In the last quarter of the year, weather forecasts point to average precipitation amounts across the country, providing favourable yield prospects for the rest of the season. As a result, aggregate 2025 production is preliminarily forecast slightly above the five‑year average.

Yellow maize for the feed industry is also cultivated all year round. Output from January to July 2025 is officially estimated at 832 000 tonnes, near the previous year’s level, but about 5 percent above the average. Planted area is estimated at an above‑average level, reflecting the growing demand by the poultry sector. Abundant rainfall amounts in the first quarter of 2025 in the key producing San Martin Region, where about 27 percent of maize plantings are concentrated, provided adequate soil moisture for crop development, bolstering yields.

According to official sources, the 2025 output of white maize for food use during the first seven months of the year is estimated to be above the five‑year average, although below the levels of the same period in 2024 and 2023. This is due to a year‑on‑year contraction of the area planted following lower year‑on‑year prices, which discouraged sowing intentions in key cropping departments of Cajamarca, Ayacucho, Apurimac and Huancavelica.

Cereal import requirements in 2025 anticipated above average, driven by growing poultry sector

In the 2025/26 marketing year (January/December), cereal import requirements are anticipated at 7.3 million tonnes, nearly 20 percent above the five‑year average. Maize imports are estimated at 4.8 million tonnes, over 25 percent above the average, driven by the high demand from the poultry industry. Wheat imports in 2025/26, mainly for domestic consumption, are also estimated to rise above the five‑year average.

Prices of yellow maize, rice and wheat flour below year‑earlier levels, due to ample market supply

From April to August 2025, prices of yellow maize exhibited a downward trend, in line with the ample supply from the abundant monthly harvests and from higher year‑on‑year imports in the first eight months of the year. Compared to the previous year, maize prices were moderately lower.

Prices of wheat flour steadily declined between March and August 2025, when they were about 8 percent lower year‑on‑year, reflecting abundant local supply due to large imports.

Wholesale prices of rice declined between January and August 2025, when they were about 15 percent below their year‑earlier level as local markets were well supplied by the 2024 above‑average output and large import amounts.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .