Reference Date: 31-July-2025

Plantings of 2025 main cereal crops forecast at above‑average level

Planting of the 2025 main paddy and maize crops, which account for the bulk of annual production, started in April and is expected to continue until September in some areas. Following predominantly dry weather conditions in April, precipitation amounts in May and June were average to above average and well distributed, supporting planting operations and early crop development. As of mid‑June 2025, remote sensing data indicate satisfactory vegetation conditions in most parts of the country (ASI map). Plantings are forecast close to the five‑year average for paddy and at above‑average levels for maize assisted by government support measures aimed at sustaining domestic production of both crops. In December 2024, the government extended the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund until 2031 and increased the annual allocation from PHP 10 billion (USD 172 million) to PHP 30 billion (USD 518 million), to provide, among other interventions, certified seeds, mechanization services, credit assistance, training and agricultural extension services to paddy farmers. Similarly, under the 2025 National Corn Program , support measures for maize farmers include the distribution of agricultural inputs, irrigation, machinery support and investments in research aimed at increasing yields. Planting of the 2025 second paddy and maize crops will begin in October 2025, with harvesting anticipated in the first half of 2026.

The 2024 cropping season finalized last May and aggregate cereal production is estimated at average 27.7 million tonnes.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Total cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 13.7 million tonnes, about 20 percent above the average. Imports of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports, are forecast at 7 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average, mostly driven by population growth and increasing domestic consumption of wheat‑based food products. Imports of rice in the 2025 calendar year are forecast at 4.8 million tonnes, down 12 percent from imports in 2024. Maize imports are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, well above the average, due to strong demand by the feed industry.

Domestic prices of rice lower year‑on‑year in May 2025

After reaching record levels in March 2024, domestic prices of rice, the country’s main staple, have followed a sustained downward trend since May 2024, declining by about 10 percent during the first five months of 2025. The downward trend primarily reflects adequate market availability from the average production harvested as well as large imports in 2024. In addition, the government has implemented a series of measures aimed at reducing rice prices. On 3 February 2025, the government declared a food security emergency on rice due to the extraordinary increase in prices , a measure that remains in effect as of July 2025. The declaration allowed the release of buffer stocks held by the National Food Authority, with rice made available to consumers at a retail price of PHP 35 per kilogram, a level below prevailing domestic market prices. In addition, the Government implemented other policy measures, including lowering tariffs on rice imports, imposing a Maximum Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) for imported rice for the National Capital Region and distributing rice to through state‑run outlets at subsides prices. The MSRP has been revised several times since the beginning of 2025, with the latest adjustment effective 16 July 2025, lowering the price from PHP 45 (USD 0.79) to PHP 43 (USD 0.75) per kilogram. Overall, as of May 2025, domestic prices of rice were between 10 and 15 percent lower than the elevated levels a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .