Reference Date: 20-December-2023

Drier‑than‑average weather conditions forecast from December 2023 to March 2024 period

Harvesting of the 2023 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 60 percent of the annual output, is nearing completion and production is forecast at a near‑average level of around 11 million tonnes. Localized crop losses were caused by several storms and typhoons between July and October. Planting of the 2023 second paddy crop is ongoing. In the key producing regions of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Western Visayas and MIMAROPA, where about half of the second crop is grown, following below‑average precipitation amounts since last October has led to soil moisture deficits. In these areas, remote sensing data, as of end‑November, indicated poor vegetation conditions (VCI map), inferring unfavourable yield prospects for the early‑planted crops. In the remaining cropping areas, sufficient rains in November improved soil moisture conditions for planting operations and benefitted crop germination. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of below‑average precipitation amounts and elevated temperatures between December 2023 and March 2024, associated with the prevailing El Niño event. If this forecast materializes, production of the 2023 second crops may be negatively affected.

Harvesting of the 2023 main maize crop was completed last September and production is officially estimated at 4 million tonnes, 6 percent above the average. The good output is mainly attributed to bumper yields owing to favourable weather conditions and widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties. Planting of the 2023 second season crop is nearing completion in key producing southern areas supported by adequate precipitation amounts since last November. In the northern regions, which account for 25 percent of maize plantings, persistent dry weather conditions expected may affect both area planted and yields.

Record cereal import requirements forecast in 2023/24

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a record level of 11.5 million tonnes. Imports of rice are forecast at 4.1 million tonnes in calendar 2024. Maize imports are forecast at 1.1 million tonnes, well above the five‑year average, due to strong demand by the feed industry. Import requirements of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports and used for both food and feed, are projected at a near‑average level of 6.1 million tonnes.

Domestic rice prices at near‑record level in November

Domestic prices of regular and well‑milled rice, the country’s main staple, increased throughout 2023, reaching near‑record levels last November in nominal terms. Prices surged particularly between July and September as seasonal trends were compounded by increases of international export quotations. High production and transport costs also supported prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .