Reference Date: 04-December-2025

Cereal production estimated at above‑average level in 2025

Maize and paddy 2025 cropping seasons were complete earlier in 2025. Maize production in 2025 is officially estimated at about 5 million tonnes, 3 percent above the average, due to large plantings. This represents a sharp rebound from the below‑average harvest in 2024, when yields were severely affected by excessive wet conditions. Paddy output in 2025 is officially estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, nearly 35 percent above the five‑year average. The bumper harvest is due to a large area planted, following high prices at planting time, in combination with above‑average yields.

Harvesting of the 2025 wheat crop is nearing completion and production is expected at an above-average level, reflecting generally favourable weather conditions that supported yields.

Overall, cereal production in 2025 is expected at about 7.7 million tonnes, 8 percent above the average.

Minor 2026 maize crop currently in favourable conditions

The 2026 minor season maize crop is currently at flowering and grain-filling stages, and remote sensing data indicates favourable vegetation conditions in the key producing southeastern areas (green areas in NDVI anomaly map). Planting of the 2026 main season maize crop will start in January 2026. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average rainfall amounts during the first quarter of 2026, which would be likely beneficial for planting operations and crop emergence. According to official sources, the aggregate maize planted area in 2026 is preliminarily forecast at a slight below‑average level.

Exports of cereals in 2025/26 anticipated 5 percent below average

Cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at 3.9 million tonnes, about 5 percent below the previous five‑year average level. This is mostly due to reduced demand for maize from Brazil, the country’s main importer, following its ample domestic supply from the record 2025 harvests. By contrast, exports of wheat and rice are forecast at an above‑average level, reflecting the abundant exportable surplus due to an above‑average production in 2025.

Maize prices stable and near year‑on‑year levels; rice prices above year‑earlier levels in October 2025

Wholesale prices of rice have been stable between June and October 2025, when they were 6 percent higher year‑on‑year due to strong export demand. Prices of yellow maize have been generally steady since May 2025 at similar year‑earlier levels, reflecting an adequate market supply.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .