Reference Date: 12-November-2025

Concerns for production prospects of 2026A season crops due to unfavourable weather conditions

The 2025 short rains rainy season, which normally extends from September to November, has been characterized so far by a poor performance. Precipitation had an erratic spatial and temporal distribution, and cumulative rainfall amounts in September and October 2025 were about 30 percent below the long-term average. The unfavourable weather conditions affected the establishment and development of the 2026A crops, to be harvested between December 2025 and January 2026, particularly in Eastern Province, where vegetation conditions are currently well below the average.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), precipitation amounts during the remainder of the rainy season are expected at average levels over most of the country. A close monitoring of rainfall performance during the next weeks is warranted.

Aggregate cereal production in 2025 estimated at above‑average level

Aggregate cereal production in 2025 is officially estimated at 943 000 tonnes, 4 percent below the record level reached in 2024 and 12 percent above the average of the previous five years, reflecting the positive effect on yields of generally favourable weather conditions and long‑standing government policies aimed at increasing agricultural productivity.

Cereal production has recorded a sustained upward trend in recent years, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 4 percent between 2015 and 2025, mainly due to government programmes promoting the use of improved seeds and fertilizers, and land consolidation. In particular, the land consolidation programme, encouraging farmers to jointly cultivate large areas for selected crops, while retaining individual ownership of their plots, allowed to increase yields through economies of scale and to gain improved access to subsidized inputs, irrigation and mechanization.

Prices of maize at high levels

The national average retail price of maize declined by 24 percent between December 2024 and March 2025 with the commercialization of 2025A season crops, accounting on average for about 80 percent of the aggregate output. Subsequently, it seasonally increased by 42 percent between March and October 2025, when it was 29 percent higher year‑on‑year, mainly due to the weakness of the national currency which inflated production and transport costs. Maize prices were also supported by the sustained demand of the poultry sector, reflecting growing domestic feed requirements.

The national average retail price of beans declined by 14 percent between April and July 2025 with the commercialization of 2025B season crops and seasonally increased by 8 percent between July and October 2025.

Generally favourable food security situation

The country is generally food secure. Food availability is expected to improve in December 2025, when the 2026A season crops will start to be available for local consumption, ending the lean season.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of end‑September 2025, the country hosted about 137 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. Most of them live in camps and they mainly rely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .