Reference Date: 20-August-2025

Aggregate paddy production in 2025 forecast close to five‑year average

Planting of the 2025 main, mostly rainfed, paddy crop, accounting for about 80 percent of annual output, is underway and it is expected to finalize by the end of August. The May‑October monsoon season began on time in mid‑May and precipitation amounts were average to above average until early August across most of the country, supporting planting operations and crop establishment. As of early August 2025, remote sensing data indicated good vegetation conditions in most cropping areas, with no evidence of drought (ASI map). The 2025 second, mostly irrigated, paddy crop will be planted from January 2026 onwards. Aggregate paddy production in 2025 is forecast at 33.6 million tonnes, close to the five‑year average, but below the previous year’s level, as declines in producer prices are anticipated to lead to area cuts. Planting of the 2025 main maize crop was completed in early July and harvesting is expected to begin in September. Crops are currently in the reproductive stage of development and growing conditions are favourable in Northern Region, where maize cultivation is concentrated. The planted area is estimated at an above-average level, supported by the strong demand of the domestic livestock sector. The 2025 second maize crop will be planted from November onwards.

The 2024 cropping season finalized in June 2025 and aggregate paddy production is estimated at an above average 34.3 million tonnes. The 2024 maize output is estimated at average 5 million tonnes.

Rice exports in 2025 forecast to decline

In calendar year 2025, exports of rice, the country’s major exportable cereal, are forecast at 7.9 million tonnes, down from the 9.9 million tonnes exported in 2024, owing to increased competition for markets

Domestic prices of rice significantly lower year‑on‑year in July 2025

Domestic prices of rice generally declined between June 2024 and July 2025, reflecting ample market availabilities from the above‑average harvest obtained in 2024 and a reduction in exports. As of July 2025, prices of rice were about 45 percent below their year-earlier level. The government implemented measures to stabilize producer prices, allowing households to receive payments of THB 1 500/tonne (USD 46.10/tonne) of the main crop produced in 2024. A paddy sales postponement loan scheme was also launched for the main crop, encouraging entities to store paddy for a period of two to six months, and payments were extended to producers to assist them cover production costs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .