Reference Date: 23-September-2025

Plantings of 2026 maize crops anticipated at record high level

Planting of 2026 maize crops started in late August and planted area is officially anticipated at a record high level, bolstered by higher year-on-year domestic prices. The low profitability of soybean crops and growing demand by the feed industry, contributed to encourage farmers to increase maize plantings. Adequate precipitation amounts in the main producing western regions in August and September provided conducive soil moisture levels for planting operations of early-planted crops. However, meteorological forecasts point to dry weather conditions for October to December 2025 which could affect germination and early development of late-planted crops.

Sowing operations of the 2025 wheat crop concluded in August and planted area is officially estimated at 305 000 hectares, about 10 percent above the five-year average. However, this represents a year-on-year decline as farmers shifted to more profitable crops such as canola and barley. Good crop conditions are reported in the main producing western regions, where average precipitation amounts in August favoured crop’s early development stages. Average precipitation amounts are forecast in October, when crops will be at emergence and late development phases and are expected to have a positive impact on yields.

Planted area of 2026 paddy crops expected above average, although lower year-on-year

Planting of the 2026 paddy crop is expected to start in October and the area planted is anticipated to remain above average, but below the previous year’s level. Profitability of paddy, that is mostly exported, decreased in line with lower year-on-year international prices, discouraging farmers from planting. Ample carryover stocks from the 2025 record-high output contributed to pressure domestic prices downward, reducing planting intentions. Forecasts of dry weather conditions from October to December 2025 in the main producing northeastern regions may reduce the availability of irrigation water, with negative effects on planting operations and germination of crops.

Below-average cereal imports and exports anticipated in 2025/26

Cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a below-average level of 2.1 million tonnes, mainly due to a yearly contraction in wheat exportable surplus due to declining production prospects, after two consecutive years of above-average export amounts in 2023 and 2024.

Cereal import requirements in 2025/26 are estimated at around 165 000 tonnes, about 42 percent below the previous five-year average, reflecting the large market supply from above-average domestic cereal output in 2024.

Prices of yellow maize and wheat above year-earlier levels

Prices of yellow maize declined steadily from March to July 2025, due to the abundant market supply from the 2025 above-average harvest. However, maize prices in July were still about 25 percent above their level of one year before, when the record high output harvested in 2024 kept prices low.

Wholesale prices of wheat exhibited slight seasonal increases in June and July 2025, amid planting operations of 2025 crops. In July, wheat prices were about 14 percent higher than the same month in 2024.

Rice prices dropped by 40 percent between May and July 2025, driven by the commercialization of the above-average newly harvested crops and were about 25 percent below their previous year’s level, reflecting lower international prices and ample domestic availability from the 2024 above-average outturn.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .