Reference Date: 09-October-2025

Paddy crop production forecast at average level in 2025

Harvesting of 2025 winter/spring paddy crops, mostly irrigated and accounting for about 45 percent of the annual output, finalized in July and production is estimated at an average level of 20.4 million tonnes. Harvesting of the 2025 summer/autumn paddy crops, accounting for about 35 percent of the annual output, is underway and it is expected to conclude in October. Production is preliminarily forecast at a record level of 15.4 million tonnes, reflecting excellent yields, supported by sufficient availability of irrigation water and generally favourable weather conditions in the main paddy producing Mekong River Delta, located in the south, and Red River Delta, located in the north. Harvesting of the 2025 10th month crop, accounting for about 20 percent of the annual output, is underway and it is expected to finalize in December, with production preliminarily forecast at an average level of 8.1 million tonnes. Overall, 2025 aggregate paddy production is forecast at an average level of 43.9 million tonnes.

The maize cropping season in 2025 is expected to finalize at the end of December with the harvest of the secondary summer/autumn crops, accounting for 20 percent of the annual production. The 2025 main winter/spring maize crops, accounting for 80 percent of total production, was harvested in July. Overall, aggregate maize production in 2025 is forecast at 4.3 million tonnes, about 5 percent below the average, mostly due to a contraction in sowings as some farmers opted to plant more profitable vegetables, fruits and other cash crops.

Cereal import requirements forecast at well above‑average level in 2025/26 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 20.1 million tonnes, well above the average level. Imports of maize are projected at 11.8 million tonnes, about 10 percent above average, reflecting reduced domestic production in 2025 and low international prices. Wheat is not produced in the country and imports are forecast at 5.5 million tonnes, significantly above average, driven by strong domestic demand for both high-quality wheat for human consumption and low‑quality wheat for animal feed. Demand for feed crops increased substantially over the past five years, largely driven by the rising demand for pork meat at national and international level, with large imports particularly from China (mainland).

Exports of rice, the country’s primary exportable cereal, are forecast at 8.8 million tonnes in the 2025 calendar year, down from the 9.1 million tonnes exported in 2024.

Prices of rice lower year‑on‑year in September 2025

Domestic wholesale prices of rice generally declined from August 2024 to September 2025, mainly due to ample market supplies from the output harvested in 2024 and 2025. As of September 2025, prices of rice were between 20 and 30 percent lower year‑on‑year across the country.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .