Reference Date: 11-December-2025

Overall favourable production outlook for 2026 cereal crops

Planting of 2026 summer cereal crops is underway and is expected to conclude in January 2026. After a slow start to the rainy season in October 2025, rainfall amounts increased in November, with monthly totals ranging from 40 percent to more than double the long‑term average across provinces, supporting planting activities. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of normal to above‑normal rainfall amounts across most of the country between December 2025 and March 2026, driven by La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. While this outlook broadly supports early expectations for a likely average to above-average cereal production in 2026, episodes of heavy rainfall could trigger localized flooding and cause crop damage. In the near-term, weather forecasts for December 2025 indicate that northeastern provinces, which produce the bulk of the country’s grain output, are likely to experience overly wet conditions that may hinder crop emergence and early development, and warrants close monitoring .

Production outcomes will also not only depend on total seasonal rainfall quantities, but also on their temporal distribution, particularly in southern and western low‑rainfall areas – where more limited soil moisture levels can reduce crops’ tolerance to dry spells and heighten reliance on timely rainfall – and on the availability of, and access to, agricultural inputs, amid elevated but stable prices. To help mitigate input constraints, the government is targeting about 3 million rural farming households, providing access to subsidized agricultural inputs.

National supplies receive boost following 2025 production rebound

According to the government’s 2025 post-harvest report, maize production reached 1.82 million tonnes, nearly triple the 2024 drought-affected harvest and 12 percent above the five‑year average. The production increase was largely driven by high yields supported by favourable weather conditions during the 2024/25 cropping season, while the area planted rose only marginally. Production of millet in 2025 more than doubled the five‑year average, while sorghum production increased by an estimated 86 percent.

Production of wheat, grown during the winter months under irrigation and harvested in October and November 2025, is estimated at about 640 000 tonnes in 2025, double the five‑year average. This outcome reflects generally favourable winter weather conditions and more stable access to electricity, which supported irrigation activities.

The rebound in production has substantially reduced maize import needs in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March), compared to the 1.5 million tonnes imported in 2024/25 following the drought‑affected harvest. The government temporarily restricted maize imports in early 2025 in response to the bumper output but subsequently reversed the decision in October to help stabilize supplies and support the replenishment of the Strategic Grain Reserve toward its 0.5‑million‑tonne target after large drawdowns in 2024/25. Wheat imports are expected to remain below average in 2025/26, only supplementing the above‑average 2025 domestic production.

Food prices stabilize in 2025 but remain elevated

The annual blended food inflation rate, which combines prices denominated in United States dollars and the national currency, declined to 17 percent in November 2025 down from 46 percent in April 2025 (the earliest available figure from the rebased inflation index). The food price slowdown reflects the improved domestic supply following the strong 2025 production recovery and continued grain imports, while declining global cereal prices eased import costs. However, domestic prices of most staple food commodities remain high due to the lingering effects of the 2024 drought and elevated transport and input costs. As a result, poor households continue to face constrained purchasing power and difficulties in meeting food needs.

Acute food insecurity lower in 2025/26

According to the government’s July 2025 livelihood assessment, an estimated 15 percent of the rural population is expected to require food assistance during the peak lean season (January‑March 2026), down from a prevalence of 57 percent in the same period of 2025. The significant decline reflects the strong production recovery in 2025, improved market supplies and more stable prices. Nevertheless, needs remain high, particularly in chronically deficit-producing areas in southern and western provinces, where many households are likely to exhaust own‑produced food stocks by the end of 2025 and face food access challenges due to low purchasing power and high prices. Moreover, the increased risk of localized flooding, given the high likelihood of average to above-average rainfall amounts during the 2025/26 rainy season, may further elevate short‑term humanitarian needs related to flood impacts.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .