Despite the unprecedented high global cereal harvest in 2008 which is projected to boost world wheat and rice stocks by up to 10 percent in 2009, Asia and the Pacific region faces mixed prospects with average cereal outputs almost stagnant.

Rice
Asia’s 2008 rice output is estimated to increase by 2 percent to 612 million tonnes, mainly due to higher harvests in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia and Viet Nam which intensified cultivation this year in response to soaring food prices. Significant gains are also expected in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand.

Cyclone Nargis is estimated to have reduced Myanmar’s 2008 rice harvest by 8 percent and production has fallen slightly in the Philippines due to reduced fertilizer use with imports planned for next year to make up the shortfall.

Wheat
According to the latest FAO estimates, Asian wheat production in 2008 could be less than last year’s record output, with adverse weather reducing the cereal harvest by 35 percent in Afghanistan where over 2 million children and women are at risk of severe alnutrition.

Food prices
While the expected global supply improvement has helped lower food prices in the latter half of 2008, key producers like India and Pakistan are offering price supports to prevent farmers from being dissuaded by high input costs and declining grain prices.

Notwithstanding the recent downward trend in prices, FAO warns that food prices over the next decade are likely to remain higher in real terms when compared to the previous decade.

More information at:
http://www.fao.org/tempref/docrep/fao/011/ai431e/ai431e00.pdf