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  Guinea

Reference Date: 20-May-2019

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Normal progress of 2019 cropping season

  2. Above-average cereal production gathered in 2018

  3. Strong economic growth and increasing food price inflation

  4. Continued assistance needed for vulnerable people

Normal progress of 2019 cropping season due to favourable moisture conditions

Following a timely onset of the seasonal rains in March, planting operations for rice, maize, millet and sorghum crops are ongoing and the harvests are expected to start in October 2019. Cumulative rainfall amounts since the start of the season are providing adequate soil moisture for crop development. Favourable rains are also contributing to the recovery of pasture conditions across the country. Weeding activities are underway in most cropping areas.

Above-average harvest gathered in 2018

Government and partner support to farmers in terms of seeds, fertilizers, tractors, capacity building and management, coupled with favourable rainfall in 2018, benefitted crop development in most parts of the country. Despite some localized flooding and Fall Armyworm outbreaks, the 2018 cereal production is estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, about 4 percent higher than the previous year and 12 percent above the five-year average. Paddy production, which accounts for the bulk of the cereal production, is estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, about 7 percent above the previous year.

Pasture supply and quality are currently improving, allowing animals to maintain good body conditions. The animal health situation is generally satisfactory.

Following an above-average harvest, import requirements for the 2018/19 (November/October) marketing year are forecast at 830 000 tonnes, slightly below the last five-year average.

Strong economic growth and increasing food price inflation

According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), the economic growth is forecast to remain strong at about 6.4 percent in 2019, up from 6 percent recorded in 2018, mainly due to sustained public investments in infrastructures, high foreign direct investments in the mining sector (bauxite and gold) and above-average agricultural production. In 2019, the year on year food price inflation is forecast at 10.2 percent, slightly up compared to the previous year. This is explained by the increase of a 25 percent in fuel prices in the last quarter of 2018, which has raised transportation costs.

Continued assistance needed for vulnerable people

Despite the overall favourable food security conditions, some vulnerable households still need external food assistance. According to the March 2019 “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis, about 146 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance from March to May 2019, with a significant increase from 5 000 food insecure people in March-May 2018. The current caseload is expected to increase to 288 000 during the June to August 2019 period, if no mitigation actions are taken. The strong pressure exerted by the mining companies on the agricultural production and pastoral areas explains the significant deterioration of the food security situation compared to last year. This has resulted in a reduction of transhumance corridors. In addition, the effects of foot-and-mouth disease and recurrent epizootics continue to affect livestock life (especially cattle) in livestock areas.

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