Reference Date: 23-September-2025

Output of 2025 wheat crop anticipated above average, due to large plantings

Planting of the 2025 wheat and barley crops finalized last August and crops, currently at emerging and vegetative stages, are in favourable conditions. Planted area with barley is anticipated to be slightly below average due to waterlogging and soil saturation caused by localized torrential rains at planting time. By contrast, planted area with wheat is estimated to be above average and about 12 percent up the previous two years’ low levels, as higher year-on-year prices encouraged farmers to plant despite the negative impact of excessive precipitations. Although rainfall amounts are forecast at average to below-average levels between October and December 2025, likely curtailing crop yield prospects, 2025 wheat output is anticipated to be above average.

Planting operations of the 2026 maize crop are underway and the area planted is officially forecast at a near-average level of 10.1 million hectares. This represents a 10 percent rebound from the previous year, when concerns over the stunt disease (Dalbulus maidis), transmitted by leafhoppers, discouraged farmers to sow. Rainfall amounts are forecast at an average level between September and November 2025 in key cropping areas, likely providing adequate soil moisture for late-planted crops and boosting yield potentials. The harvest of the 2025 maize crop concluded in July, with a slight delay due to the excessive moisture during the harvest. Output is officially estimated at a below-average level of 52 million tonnes, reflecting the contraction in planted area.

Exports of maize in 2025/26 forecast at below‑average level

Exports of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal commodity, are forecast at about 33.5 million tonnes in 2025/26 marketing year (March/February), slightly below the five-year average level and over 10 percent less than in 2024/25. Despite the reduction of export duties from 12 to 9.5 percent adopted last August and the depreciation of the local currency, the year-on-year decline in maize exports is mainly due to the tight exportable surplus from the below-average 2025 output.

Wheat exports are anticipated at 10.3 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (December/November), slightly below the five-year average. However, this represents a rebound from the below-average exports in the last two years caused by the low level of domestic production. In 2025/26, exports of wheat are forecast to continue rising on account of favourable production prospects in 2025.

Wheat and maize prices above previous year’s levels in August 2025

Wholesale prices of wheat strengthened seasonally between June and August 2025 and they were up to 15 percent higher than one year earlier, mainly driven by strong export demand.

After seasonally declining in May and June, maize prices increased in July and August 2025 due to delays in the 2025 season harvest, on account of heavy rains. Compared to the previous year, prices in August were about 45 percent higher due to the low supply from 2025 drought-stricken harvest, compounded by the depreciation of the local currency.

Overall, retail prices of wheat flour, bread and beef meat continued strengthening in the first half of 2025, reflecting high production and transport costs, and they were above their level of one year earlier in June 2025. The only exception was white rice, whose retail price steadily declined from October 2024 to April 2025 and remained nearly stable between May and July 2025 as a result of an above-average paddy production in 2025 crop. As of July 2025, rice prices were about 20 percent lower than the previous year.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .