Reference Date: 26-November-2025

Planting of 2026 winter cereal crops underway

Planting of the 2026 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, is underway and the harvest is expected to start in June 2026. In most producing areas of the departments of Kura‑Aras and Karabakh, favourable weather conditions between September and October 2025 supported planting operations and the establishment of early‑planted crops. Weather forecasts between January and May 2026 indicate above‑average rainfall amounts, which are expected to boost soil moisture levels and support yield development.

Cereal production in 2025 estimated at above‑average level

The 2025 aggregate cereal production is estimated at about 3.3 million tonnes, above the five‑year average level. The output reflects both a large planted area and generally favourable weather conditions that supported yields, although some dry spells caused localized crop losses. Wheat production in 2025 is officially set at about 1.9 million tonnes. Barley output is estimated at about 1.1 million tonnes, near the average level due to yields being affected by average rainfall during the growing season.

Wheat import requirements in 2025/26 forecast at below‑average level

In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at a below-average level of 1.3 million tonnes. Wheat import requirements, accounting for more than 90 percent of total cereal imports, are also forecast to be below average, supported by a relatively consistent level of domestic production in 2025.

Retail prices of wheat stable year‑on‑year as of October 2025

Retail prices of domestic wheat flour have remained generally stable in monitored markets between September 2024 and October 2025 (latest available data), amid adequate domestic availability.The current exemption of the 18 percent value added tax (VAT) on imports and sales of wheat is contributing to the stability of domestic wheat prices. The measure is expected to remain in place until 1 January 2027, helping to maintain this price stability over the medium term.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .