Reference Date: 29-December-2025

Favourable production prospects for paddy and main season maize in 2026

Planting of the 2026 paddy and main season maize crops is ongoing at a slower pace than usual due to above-average rainfall amounts since end-October 2025. The Chamber of Agriculture of the East, the key cereal producing region, forecasts a year-on-year expansion of the area sown with paddy and main maize crops in 2026. Yield prospects are generally positive as weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average rainfall amounts during the first quarter of 2026 and diesel supply, which caused delays in agricultural activities in the previous seasons, has reportedly been normalized.

Aggregate maize production estimated above average in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 minor season maize crop has been completed last September and seasonal output is estimated to be near the average, as some farmers switched to plant more drought-resisting sorghum crops. Despite some crop losses due to well above-average rainfall amounts in March 2025, production of the main season crop, harvested between March and May, is officially estimated to be above average, as a result of large plantings instigated by high prices at planting time. Overall, the aggregate 2025 output is estimated at nearly 1.2 million tonnes, 10 percent above the five‑year average.

Planting of the 2025 minor season sorghum crop is ongoing and the current saturated soil moisture is likely to limit the extent of planted area. Production of the 2025 main season sorghum crop, harvested between July and September, is estimated at a slightly above-average level, mainly due to an increase in planted area as several farmers following below-average rainfall amounts in planting month of May, opted to plant sorghum instead of maize, which is less resistant to dryness.

Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2025/26 marketing year

Cereal import requirements, mostly wheat flour and rice, in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), are forecast at an above‑average level of 364 000 tonnes, mainly reflecting the strong demand for human consumption. The costs of imports declined as import tariffs on maize, wheat flour, wheat and rice have been suspended until December 2025.

Retail prices of rice and wheat flour above year-earlier levels in October 2025

Despite recent declines due to an improved market supply, retail prices of wheat flour in Santa Cruz Department were still about 40 percent above their year‑earlier levels in October 2025, mainly due to below-average imports in the 2024/25 marketing year. Similarly, retail prices of rice weakened for the second consecutive month in October, but remained over 20 percent higher year‑on‑year, reflecting the tight supply due to below‑average outputs harvested in 2024 and 2025.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .