Reference Date: 21-July-2025

Record wheat crop production forecast in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 main winter wheat crop, accounting for about 90 percent of the annual output, concluded in early July. The area planted is estimated slightly above the five‑year average, mostly supported by government incentives, including a minimum support price and the provision of subsidized agricultural inputs. Moreover, generally favourable weather conditions in key producing areas, coupled with adequate supply of irrigation water and widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties, benefitted yields. The 2025 minor spring wheat crop, accounting for about 10 percent of the annual output, is currently in the tillering to jointing stages of development and harvesting is expected to start by mid‑July. Field assessments from mid‑June 2025 indicated favourable growing conditions for the spring wheat crop in most parts of the country. Overall, the 2025 aggregate wheat output (winter and spring crops) is forecast at a record 141 million tonnes.

Harvesting of the 2025 early double rice crop just started and it is expected to conclude at the end of July, while the single and late double rice crops, for harvest between August and November, are currently being planted. Overall, the aggregate area sown with rice in 2025 is forecast at a level close to the five-year average. Harvesting of the 2025 spring maize crop is expected to start in July, while the summer maize crop, for harvest from September onwards, is currently being planted. The aggregate area sown with maize in 2025 is forecast above the average, driven by the strong domestic demand for feed commodities.

Cereal imports forecast significantly below‑average in 2024/25

Total cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year are forecast at a significantly below average 27.8 million tonnes, reflecting ample carryover stocks from large imports in 2023/24 and the record domestic cereal production harvested in 2024. Imports of sorghum are forecast at 5.5 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September), about 25 percent below the average. Imports of wheat are estimated at 4.7 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), representing about half the average level. Imports of maize are forecast at 4 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September), about one quarter of the average level. By contrast, imports of barley in 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at above average 11.5 million tonnes, likely encouraged by low international prices.

Domestic prices of wheat grain and rice lower year on year in June 2025

Wholesale prices of wheat grain declined steadily from November 2023 to January 2025, due to ample market availability from the above‑average harvests attained in 2023 and 2024, and the large volume of imports in the 2023/24 marketing year. Since February 2025, prices have mildly increased in line with seasonal trends and, as of June 2025, they were about 5 percent lower year‑on‑year.

Wholesale prices of Indica rice, have been declining since mid‑2024 and, as of June 2025, they were slightly below their year earlier level, reflecting adequate market availability.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .