Reference Date: 13-October-2022

Cereal production forecast at slightly above‑average level in 2022

Harvesting of the 2022 maize crop finalized in October and the output is estimated at 275 million tonnes, 5 percent above the five‑year average level. The bumper output is predominantly driven by a price‑induced expansion in sowings, while yields are estimated at an average level.

Harvesting of the 2022 early paddy crop concluded in August, while harvesting of the intermediate and late paddy crops is ongoing and will finalize in November. The 2022 paddy production is forecast at a near‑average level of 211.9 million tonnes, as a slight year‑on‑year decline in yields is expected to be partially offset by a small area expansion.

The harvest of the 2022 wheat crop was completed in August and the production is estimated at 138.4 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average, due to bumper yields reflecting generally favourable weather conditions.

Overall, aggregate cereal production is forecast at a slightly above‑average level of 635.6 million tonnes.

Cereal imports in 2022/23 forecast well above average

Total cereal imports in the 2022/23 marketing year are forecast at about 48 million tonnes, well above the five‑year average, but more than 20 percent below the unpreceded high level attained in 2020/21 and 2021/22. The large level of imports reflects primarily the strong demand for feed driven by the growth of the livestock sector.

Imports of maize, mostly for feed, are forecast at 18 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year (October/September), 30 percent above the five‑year average. Similarly, imports of other feed crops, namely barley and sorghum, are forecast at high levels. The growing demand by the feed industry is also expected to keep imports of wheat grain at high levels as wheat is often used as a substitute of maize. Wheat imports in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to reach 7.8 million tonnes, more than 20 percent above the five‑year average.

Domestic wheat grain prices at high level in 2022 due to strong demand for feed

Domestic prices of wheat grain have generally increased from July 2020 to May 2022, supported by strong demand for from the feed sector. Prices have declined slightly in June and July following the 2022 harvest. In September, wheat grain prices were at high levels in most markets.

Domestic prices of Indica and Japonica rice have been generally stable throughout 2022, reflecting good market availabilities from the 2021 harvests.

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