Reference Date: 04-December-2025

Paddy production estimated near-average in 2025

The harvest of the 2025 main season paddy crop has been recently completed and production is estimated at an above-average level, mainly reflecting large plantings, officially estimated at 417 600 hectares, about 4 percent above average. However, this represents a yearly decline due to lower year-on-year prices at planting time, resulting from the 2024 bumper harvest.

Overall, aggregate paddy output in 2025 is estimated at an average level of 3 million tonnes. The minor season paddy crop was harvested earlier in the year and a below-average production was attained due to unfavourable wet conditions that curbed yields.

The 2025 main maize crop is at grain-filling and maturation stages, and the harvest will start in December. Although official estimates are not available yet, a contraction in planted area compared to the already below-average level in 2024 is expected due to lower year-on-year prices at planting time. Vegetation conditions are generally favourable in main producing departments of Meta, Córdoba, Tolima and Bolívar.

Aggregate 2025 maize production, including a below-average minor season output due to unfavourable wet conditions, is anticipated to be below average.

Cereal import requirements anticipated above-average in 2025

About 85 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are usually covered by imports. Cereal import requirements in the 2025 marketing year (January/December) are anticipated at 9.6 million tonnes, nearly 10 percent above average. The high level is mainly due to the rising domestic demand of maize by the feed sector, exacerbated by a below-average domestic production. Wheat imports for human consumption are also anticipated to rise, in line with the demographic and economic growth. On the contrary, rice imports in 2025 are forecast at a below‑average level due to abundant domestic supplies from the 2024 above‑average production.

Wholesale prices of cereal lower year‑on‑year in October 2025

Wholesale prices of yellow maize declined mostly between October 2024 and September 2025, and, despite an increase in October 2025, they were nearly 30 percent below their year-earlier levels. The low level is mainly due to the ample supply from the above-average 2024 main season harvest and the larger year-on-year imports in the first eight months of 2025.

Similarly, reflecting the ample supply from the 2024 bumper harvest, prices of rice have declined steadily since February 2025 and they were nearly 10 percent lower year-on-year in October 2025. Prices of wheat flour also weakened during the first ten months of 2025, reflecting larger year-on-year imports and declining international prices.

About 8.2 million people estimated in need of food and nutrition assistance

According to the 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan Update by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), about 8.2 million people are estimated to be in need of food and nutrition assistance in 2025 , up from the 7.3 million people estimated in 2024. Due to reduced availability of financial resources, the number of targeted people in the food security and nutrition sector in 2025 was prioritized from 877 200 people to 584 000 people .

Between January and mid-September 2025, nearly 761 000 people were directly affected by violence, such as attacks against the civilian population, armed strikes, forced displacement, armed actions and use of explosive devices, mainly in Cauca, Norte de Santander and Chocó departments. This represents a more than fourfold increase compared to the same period in 2024. In addition, humanitarian access was restricted for about 597 000 people , mostly due to reduced mobility resulting from confinement, during the first nine months of 2025, which represents more than double the amount of people in same period a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .