Reference Date: 17-December-2024
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Hurricanes Oscar and Rafael hit country in October and November 2024, damaging agricultural production
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Maize and paddy production in 2024 estimated below average
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Cereal import requirements forecast below average in 2024/25 marketing year
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Inflation at record low level in September 2024
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Hurricanes Oscar and Rafael hit country in October and November 2024, damaging agricultural production
Two mayor hurricanes, named Oscar and Rafael, made landfall on 20 October in the eastern region and on 4 November 2024 in central and western regions, respectively, disrupting dwellings, infrastructures and essential services, including several hospitals and schools. About 800 000 people were estimated to have been affected by the hurricane. Additionally, on 10 November, the southeastern provinces of Granma and Santiago de Cuba were hit by two powerful earthquakes, further damaging buildings and infrastructures. Island‑wide power outages were caused by the collapse of the National Electrical Energy System, affecting water supply, lighting and telecommunication systems in several areas. The agricultural sector reported severe damages, as about 15 000 hectares of crops, primarily cassava and plantain cultivations, were estimated to have been hit by strong winds, floodings and seawater intrusion. In the poultry farming sector, the death of more than 70 000 chickens was reported
. The humanitarian response is supporting the recovery of the damaged area
, following the preventive evacuation of about 130 000 and 270 000 people, respectively, in October and November.
Maize and paddy production in 2024 estimated below average
Harvesting of the 2024 main paddy and maize crops is nearing completion and production is estimated at below-average levels. Although the results of the impact assessment of the two hurricanes on agriculture are not yet available, it is reported that 835 hectares of rice and 571 hectares of maize have been affected in Atemisa and Mayabeque provinces in November 2024 and losses are expected to be significant. The paddy planted area in 2024 is estimated at a below-average level due to lack of agricultural inputs and high production costs coupled with dry weather conditions and above‑average temperatures in April and May 2024. However, above‑average rainfall amounts in June and July restored conducive conditions for crop development in the main paddy producing areas of Granma, Sancti Spíritus, Camagüey and Pinar del Río. Harvesting of the main maize season crop in underway and production is anticipated to be below average as the reduction of planted area more than offset the above‑average 2024 yields from the improved availability of locally produced fertilizers.
Paddy plantings of the minor campaña de frío season, accounting for about one‑third of the annual production, started in October 2024, but planting operations were severely hampered in the areas that were most affected by the hurricanes or experienced energy shortfalls. Yields are expected to be above average, as a result of the use of hybrid seeds varieties supplied by the government of Viet Nam.
Cereal import requirements forecast below average in 2024/25 marketing year
Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes, about 15 percent below average, reflecting weak local demand from the feed industry and for food consumption due to the reduced size of the population, that has been declining since 2016. However, imports of rice, which account for the largest share of cereal imports, are anticipated at an above-average level of 482 000 tonnes to compensate for crop losses in the areas affected by the hurricanes. In 2023/24, cereal imports were about 16 percent below the average level as low availability of foreign exchange reserves limited the country’s capacity to import.
Inflation at record low level in September 2024
After two years of slight recovery in 2021 and 2022, a negative Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.9 percent was reported in 2023. The economic contraction reflects the continued lack of foreign exchange reserves resulting from limited export inflows from the stricter United States of America sanctions imposed since 2017 and the slow rehabilitation of the tourism sector after the COVID‑19 pandemic. Frequent energy shortages combined with the losses from the two hurricanes that hit the island in October and November are expected to further hamper economic recovery in 2024.
The progressive contraction of public spending started easing inflation, that has been declining continuously since March 2024, reaching
28 percent in October 2024
, the lowest level since May 2022. The reduction of government spending further exacerbated productive inputs shortages, including electricity, fuel and fertilizers, resulting in recessive trends in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Access to food for most vulnerable households remains limited, as food prices remain high, in line with prices of other essential items, reflecting food supply shortages from reduced imports and production. In order to avoid the subsequent rise of food and essential good prices following the humanitarian crisis generated by the hurricanes, the Ministry of Finance and Prices reinforced price control measures previously introduced in July 2024.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/
.
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool
https://fpma.fao.org/
.
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring
https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/
.
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
https://www.ipcinfo.org/
.