Reference Date: 30-June-2026

Above-average wheat harvest expected in 2026 supported by expansion in planted area

Harvesting of the 2026 wheat crop started in May and is expected to continue until August, while sowing operations for the 2026 rice and maize crops also began in May. Wheat production in 2026 is forecast at about 10 million tonnes, nearly 7 percent above the average, largely driven by an expansion in the planted area. The increase in plantings was supported by government procurement prices announced ahead of the sowing season in late August 2025, set at EGP 2 250-2 350 per ardeb, more than 30 percent above the international wheat prices. In April 2026, the government increased the procurement price to EGP 2 500 per ardeb, aiming to strengthen strategic stock levels, amid regional instability and food security concerns. Production prospects were further underpinned by the distribution of subsidized certified seeds, fertilizers and continued government support to mechanized farming practices. As of mid-June, the government had procured about 4.7 million tonnes of wheat from domestic farmers, about 20 percent more than in the same period in 2025.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 forecast at above-average level

Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 29 million tonnes, about 30 percent above the average, largely driven by rising maize import needs for feed use. Wheat import requirements are forecast at 13.5 million tonnes, about 8 percent above the average, mostly sourced from the Black Sea Region due to competitive prices. Imports are largely handled by the private sector, supported by strong domestic milling activity serving both local demand and wheat flour exports to neighbouring countries in Africa and the Near East. Maize import requirements are forecast at 15.5 million tonnes, about 60 percent above the average, driven by the sustained needs from the expanding domestic poultry, livestock and aquaculture sectors.

Annual food inflation resumed an upward trend in early 2026

Annual food inflation eased through most of 2025, but resumed an upward trend from February 2026 onwards, largely reflecting the depreciation of the national currency. In May 2026, it had reached 7.6 percent, mainly driven by higher prices of fresh vegetables, seafood, meat, bread and cereals, while declines in fresh fruit prices partly offset the increases. In April 2026, national average retail prices of wheat flour were about 5 percent higher than a year earlier, while rice prices remained about 1 percent lower.

Humanitarian funding constraints increase food insecurity risks among refugees in 2026

According to the latest Egypt Vulnerability Assessment for Refugees (EVAR) , more than 65 percent of refugee households were classified in 2025 as highly or extremely vulnerable and unable to meet basic needs, while nearly 58 percent faced moderate to severe food insecurity. As of April 2026, the country hosted over 1.1 million registered refugees, largely from the Sudan. Persistent funding shortfalls constrained humanitarian operations, leading to a suspension of cash assistance for 100 000 refugees and crisis-affected people in March 2026. The reduction in assistance has significantly worsened vulnerable households’ access to food.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .