Reference Date: 05-September-2025

Wheat crop production officially estimated at record level in 2025/26

Harvesting of the 2025/26 Rabi wheat crop, which is almost entirely irrigated, finalized in May 2025. Production is officially estimated at an all‑time high of 117.5 million tonnes, mainly reflecting record sowings, supported by attractive domestic prices at planting time and by governmental incentives, including a year‑on‑year increase in minimum support price. Yields in the main wheat producing areas are estimated at above‑average level, owing to generally favourable weather conditions and adequate supply of irrigation water. In few northern areas, including the important wheat producing states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, localized crop losses occurred due to below‑average precipitation amounts between October 2024 and March 2025, followed by heavy rains and hail in April 2025.

Planting of the 2025/26 main monsoon Kharif paddy and maize crops, has been completed and will be harvested from October. According to official estimates, as of 15 August 2025, about 39.9 million hectares were planted with paddy and about 9.3 million hectares with maize, for both crops exceeding the record level for the same period in 2024. The high level of sowings mostly reflects the strong local demand and the effects of governmental support measures. As of early August 2025, remote sensing data indicated good vegetation conditions across most cropping areas (ASI map), underpinned by average to above average and well distributed monsoon precipitation amounts between June and early August 2025. However, in several parts of the country, particularly Punjab State in the north, heavy rains and cloudbursts (short‑duration, intense rainfall events over a small area) in late August and early September 2025 triggered floods and landslides, causing localized crop losses and damage to housing, agricultural infrastructure and roads. The flood‑related losses in area planted and yields in Punjab State and neighbouring northern states raise the likelihood that the 2025/26 main Kharif paddy production will fall short of earlier expectations. The 2025/26 secondary Rabi maize crop will be planted from September onwards, while planting operations of the 2025/26 Rabi paddy crop are expected to start in November.

According to the latest weather forecasts, there is a high likelihood of above‑average precipitation amounts between September and November 2025, likely providing conducive conditions for the planting and establishment of the 2026 winter Rabi crops. However, for the ongoing 2025/26 main monsoon Kharif crops reaching maturity during this period, excessive rains could hamper harvesting operations and affect yields. In addition, above‑average temperatures are forecast over the same period, which could foster outbreaks of pests and diseases, and reduce yields.

Total cereal exports forecast at above‑average level in 2025/26 marketing year

Aggregate cereal exports, mainly rice and small quantities of maize and wheat, are forecast at above‑average 26.9 million tonnes in 2025/26 marketing year. Exports of rice in 2025 calendar year are forecast at 23.3 million tonnes, up 30 percent from 2024 and a record high, thanks to ample exportable availabilities from the record harvest obtained in 2024/25. Exports of maize in 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, about 35 percent below the average, due to the strong local demand by the feed industry. Exports of wheat in 2025/26 marketing year are forecast to remain significantly below the average level for the third consecutive year, due to the ongoing ban on exports of wheat, imposed in May 2022 with the aim to mitigate domestic price increases.

Prices of wheat grain at high levels in July 2025

Domestic prices of wheat grain declined between March and June 2025, reflecting the commercialization of the 2025 harvest. As of July 2025, prices remained above the elevated level of a year earlier, mostly sustained by the strong domestic demand. In May 2025, the government imposed limits on wheat grain stocks held by retailers, wholesalers, traders and processors, effective until 31 March 2026, with the aim of preventing hoarding and improving market availability. Stock limits were set at 3 000 tonnes for traders and wholesalers, 10 tonnes for retail outlets and, for processors, 70 percent of monthly installed capacity, multiplied by the remaining months on the 2025‑2026 Financial Year (April/March). Domestic prices of rice declined between June 2024 and June 2025, owing to adequate market availability from the 2024 record harvest. As of July 2025, prices were about 5 percent below their elevated levels of a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .