Reference Date: 24-March-2025

Wheat crop production officially forecast at record level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 Rabi wheat crop, which is almost entirely irrigated, is underway and will conclude by May 2025. Production is officially forecast at record 115.4 million tonnes, mainly driven by increased sowings, supported by attractive domestic prices at sowing time and a year‑on‑year increase in the minimum support price for the wheat crop declared by the government. Weather conditions were overall conducive for crop production, except in the largest wheat producing state of Uttar Pradesh, where precipitation amounts between October 2024 and February 2025 remained largely deficient. The temperature in February and March have been slightly higher than normal, which might affect the prospects of a bumper crop production. Availability of irrigation water and agricultural inputs, and high‑quality seed varieties, has been generally adequate.

Cereal production in 2024 forecast at record level

Harvesting of the 2024/25 secondary Rabi and summer paddy crops, which combined account for about 18 percent of the annual output, is underway and is expected to conclude by June 2025. Production is forecast to be above the five‑year average, mostly reflecting the area expansion driven by attractive prices and government support to paddy farmers. Weather conditions have been favourable since the start of the cropping season in November 2024 and, together with an adequate supply of irrigation water, had a positive effect on crop yields. The 2024 main Kharif paddy crop, which accounts for about 82 percent of the annual output, was harvested between September 2024 and February 2025, and production is estimated at a record 175 million tonnes (in paddy terms). The robust output reflects a price-driven expansion in plantings and excellent yields, following conducive precipitation during the June to September monsoon season. The 2024/25 aggregate paddy production is forecast at record 214.2 million tonnes. Harvesting of the 2024 secondary Rabi maize crop is underway and will conclude by May, while the main Kharif maize crop was harvested in November 2024. The 2024 aggregate maize production is forecast at a record level of 38.1 million tonnes, owing to large sowings due to strong demand by the local feed industry. The 2024 wheat production, harvested in June 2024, is officially estimated at record 113.3 million tonnes. Overall, the 2024 aggregate cereal output is forecast at record 385.2 million tonnes (rice in paddy terms).

Total cereal exports forecast at average level in 2024/25

Aggregate cereal exports, mostly comprising rice, wheat and maize, are forecast at average 24.2 million tonnes in 2024/25. This level represents a 50 percent increase from the previous year, when export restrictions on various rice types and an export ban on wheat grain significantly restricted overall cereal shipments. Since September 2024, the government has lifted all export restrictions on rice. However, the ban on wheat exports, initially imposed in May 2022, remains in effect as of mid‑March 2025.

Exports of rice in the 2025 calendar year are forecast at record 23 million tonnes, reflecting ample exportable availability following the record production harvested in 2024/25. Exports of wheat in 2024/25 are forecast to remain significantly below average, due to the ongoing ban on exports of wheat. Exports of maize in 2024/25 are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, nearly 50 percent below the average, due to strong domestic demand by the feed industry.

Prices of rice and wheat grain higher year‑on‑year in February 2025

Domestic prices of wheat grain have consistently increased since May 2023, reaching record levels as of February 2025. Despite record outputs harvested in 2023 and 2024, and continued export restrictions for wheat, the high prices of wheat reflect a series of factors, including strong domestic demand. The same factors, coupled with concerns over the effects of weather conditions on production, contributed to retail prices of rice increasing between February 2023 and June 2024, when they reached record levels. Since July 2024, prices of rice eased slightly with the arrival of the 2024/25 main harvest.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .