Reference Date: 31-August-2026

Cereal production forecast at above‑average level in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 secondary Yala paddy crop, which accounts for about 40 percent of annual output, is ongoing and is expected to conclude in September. According to remote‑sensing data, vegetation conditions were generally favourable just before harvest in mid‑June 2026, with no evidence of drought (ASI map). The area planted is estimated at an above‑average level, supported by adequate irrigation water availability and government support measures, including fertilizer subsidies. However, elevated fertilizer prices on commercial markets, associated with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increased production costs and may have constrained fertilizer application rates in some areas. In addition, fuel‑related disruptions are estimated to have increased harvesting, processing and transport costs, and to have contributed to higher post‑harvest losses. Consequently, farmers' incomes, particularly among smallholder farmers, are expected to be adversely affected. The 2026 main Maha paddy crop, which accounts for about 60 percent of annual output, was harvested in March 2026 and production is officially estimated at above‑average 2.8 million tonnes. In November 2025, Cyclone Ditwah caused severe flooding and damaged recently planted paddy crops, particularly in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts. However, most affected areas were replanted and generally favourable weather conditions during the remainder of the season supported crop development.

The 2026 main Maha maize crop, which accounts for about 90 percent of annual output, was harvested in March 2026. Production is officially estimated at 360 000 tonnes, about 25 percent above average, reflecting an expansion of the area sown encouraged by relatively favourable prices, and above‑average yields supported by adequate precipitation amounts during the growing season. The 2026 secondary Yala maize crop, which accounts for about 10 percent of annual output, is currently being harvested and production prospects are favourable. Overall, aggregate cereal crop production in 2026 is forecast at 5.3 million tonnes, about 9 percent above the average.

Cereal production estimated at above‑average level in 2025

The 2025 cropping season finalized with aggregate cereal production is estimated at 5.5 million tonnes, about 12 percent above the five‑year average. Production of paddy is officially estimated at above‑average 5.1 million tonnes, reflecting a large area planted and excellent yields due to favourable weather conditions. Output of maize is estimated at above‑average 420 000 tonnes, mostly reflecting bumper yields under optimal weather conditions.

Cereal import requirements forecast at above‑average level in 2026

Cereal import requirements, primarily wheat, are forecast at above average 1.7 million tonnes in the 2026 calendar year, reflecting the strong domestic demand for wheat‑based products, driven by population growth and high level of tourist arrivals.

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This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .