Reference Date: 16-March-2026

Wheat crop production estimated well below average in 2025

Harvesting of the mostly irrigated 2025 wheat crop finalized last October and production is officially estimated at 282 000 tonnes, almost 40 percent below the previous five-year average. The reduced output reflects both a contraction in sowings, as farmers opted for more profitable vegetables and cash crops, and low yields due to dry weather conditions and abnormally high temperatures between May and July 2025, particularly in central and western parts of the country.

Wheat import requirements in 2025/26 forecast well above-average level

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat plus some small quantities of rice. Wheat import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at a well above-average level of 150 000 tonnes, driven by reduced domestic production in 2024 and 2025, as well as by strong domestic demand for high‑quality wheat for human consumption. For the 2026 calendar year, imports of rice, which is not produced domestically, are forecast at an above-average level of 60 000 tonnes, reflecting increasing domestic consumption.

Prices of main staple foods at record levels in January 2026

Wheat flour, beef and mutton meat are the main staple foods in the country. Domestic prices of beef meat have increased since November 2024 and, from last November, the upward trend accelerated with prices reaching record levels in various markets in January 2026, between 20 and 40 percent above the high levels of a year earlier. Domestic prices of mutton meat increased steadily from November 2024 to April 2025, when they reached record levels. Then, prices softened until November 2025 when they resumed their upward trend, reaching new record highs in January 2026, ranging between 20 and 40 percent above the elevated levels of a year earlier. The record prices reflect seasonal trends that were amplified by the reduced domestic availability of livestock products in markets following the 2023/24 Dzud event which caused significant livestock losses. Strong import demand of beef and mutton meat products from China (mainland), the country’s main importer, further supported domestic prices.

Since March 2025, retail prices of wheat flour surged in most markets of the country and, as of January 2026, they reached record levels, as seasonal upward pressure was compounded by reduced market availability following a sharply reduced 2025 wheat harvest. On 9 October 2025, in order to curb the high level of domestic prices, the government announced the temporary suspension of import tariffs on wheat flour imported through the western border with the Russian Federation and China (mainland), effective from 24 December 2025 to 01 April 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .