Reference Date: 09-July-2025

Wheat production in 2025 forecast at near‑average level

Planting of the 2025 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, took place in October 2024. The area sown is estimated at 15.1 million hectares, about 5 percent below the average level due to dry soil conditions at planting time in several key producing regions, including Kursk, Saratov and Belgorod. However, favourable weather during the growing season contributed to the increase of soil moisture reserves with a notable recovery in crop conditions. Planting of the 2025 spring cereal crops, mainly wheat, began in mid‑April and is currently still ongoing, with early indications of an increase in sown area. Overall, the 2025 aggregate wheat production is forecast at near‑average level.

Below‑average cereal production harvested in 2024

Harvesting of the 2024 winter cereal crop was completed in August 2024, while harvesting of the spring cereals finalized in November. According to official estimates, the 2024 wheat production is set at 82.6 million tonnes, below the five ‑ year average. Maize production is estimated at 14 million tonnes and barley output at 16.7 million tonnes. Aggregate cereal production in 2024 is estimated at below average 125.9 million tonnes, reflecting unfavourable weather conditions that adversely affected yields.

Cereal exports forecast at near‑average level in 2024/25

Total cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 50 million tonnes, close to the five ‑ year average. Wheat exports, which typically account for about 80 percent of total cereal shipments, are forecast at approximately 42 million tonnes. The high pace of exports during the first half of the marketing year supported the carryover stocks and the strong demand from key importing countries. However, wheat export volumes are expected to be limited in the second half of the season.

Export prices of wheat increased compared to year‑earlier levels

Export prices of milling wheat showed a declining trend between January and March 2024, reflecting large domestic availability. Between April 2024 and April 2025 export prices for milling wheat increased, then slightly declined in May, but remained, as of June 2025, 5 percent above the previous year’s level primarily due to declining market availabilities. The national wheat export quota of 10.6 million tonnes for the period from February 15 to June 30, 2025, applicable only to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union, contributed to downward pressure on prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .