Reference Date: 10-April-2026

Below‑average area planted with 2026 winter crops

Planting of the 2026 winter cereal crops, mostly wheat and barley, to be harvested from July onwards, was concluded in November 2025. The total sown area is estimated to be below the average level as an expansion in area planted of high margin crops, particularly oilseeds, has reduced wheat plantings. Prolonged dry weather from September to November 2025 resulted in inadequate soil moisture conditions which negatively affected the establishment of crops. According to prevailing weather forecasts, there is a high likelihood of below‑average cumulative precipitation amounts between April and May 2026, which may hinder crop development.

Planting of 2026 spring crops, mainly wheat and maize, started in late March and is currently underway.

Cereal production at above‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 winter cereal crop was completed in August 2025, while harvesting of spring cereals finalized last November. According to official estimates, aggregate cereal production in 2025 is estimated at an above-average level of 134.5 million tonnes. Also, output is set at about 10 percent higher year‑on‑year, supported by generally favourable weather conditions during crop development. Wheat production in 2025 is estimated at about 91.1 million tonnes, while barley and maize production are estimated at 19.7 million tonnes and 14.8 million tonnes, respectively, all below average.

Cereal exports forecast at near‑average level in 2025/26

Total cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 52 million tonnes, close to the five‑year average. Wheat exports, which typically account for about 80 percent of total cereal shipments, are forecast at approximately 45 million tonnes. The high pace of exports during the first half of the marketing year was supported the carryover stocks and strong demand by key importing countries. However, a government mandated grain export quota of 20 million tonnes, in force from mid‑February to end‑June 2026, is likely to constrain export volumes despite favourable supply conditions.

Export prices of wheat decreased year‑on‑year as of February 2026

Export prices of milling wheat followed a declining trend and were about 5 percent below the year‑earlier level as of February 2026, supported by ample supply. The national wheat export quota, applicable only to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union, has contributed to downward pressure on prices.

According to the State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the annual inflation rate increased from 5.59 percent in 2025 to 6 percent in 2026, largely driven by war‑related expenditures and associated economic constraints.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .