Reference Date: 30-April-2024

Dire food security situation due to multiple shocks

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 7.1 million people (56 percent of the total population) are estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity during the lean season between April and July 2024. The highest prevalence of severe acute food insecurity, ranging between 65 and 75 percent, is reported in the states of Unity, Upper Nile and Jonglei, in Pibor Administrative Area and among returnees from the conflict‑affected Sudan. Particular concern exists for 79 000 people facing IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity, including 11 000 people in Pibor Administrative area, 40 000 people in Aweil East County in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State and 28 000 returnees from the Sudan spread across the country.

The main drivers of the dire food security situation are protracted macroeconomic challenges resulting in high inflation, insufficient food supplies, the lingering impact of consecutive years with widespread floods and episodes of intercommunal violence.

After the ceasefire signed in 2018, the security situation has generally improved and, until September 2023, about 1 million displaced people returned to their places of origin, including about 337 300 in the first nine months of 2023. However, the situation remains volatile, with episodes of organized violence at subnational level reported to have increased in February and March 2024, especially in Jonglei, Warrap and Unity states and in Pibor and Abyei administrative areas.

Currently, about 2 million people remain internally displaced and 2.28 million refugees are residing in neighbouring Uganda, the Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Kenya.

About 649 000 people have moved to South Sudan to flee the conflict which erupted in the Sudan in April 2023. About 80 percent of the arrivals are South Sudanese returnees and the rest are Sudanese refugees.

Abundant rains at start of 2024 cropping season

Abundant rainfall amounts were received across most of the country in the first half of April. In southern bimodal rainfall areas, where first season crops are planted in March and April, and harvested in July and August, the timely onset of seasonal rains has benefited crop germination. By contrast, in central and northern unimodal rainfall areas, where crops are planted in March and April, and the bulk is harvested in September and October, the abundant rainfall amounts are likely to disrupt planting operations.

According to the latest Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) weather forecast, rainfall amounts between April and June 2024 are expected to be above average across most of the country, likely benefiting yields. However, above‑average rainfall amounts are expected to exacerbate floods anticipated from mid‑2024 due to the overflow of the river Nile and its tributaries.

Above‑average cereal production in 2023

According to preliminary findings of the 2023 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM), aggregate cereal production in 2023 is estimated at about 1 014 000 tonnes, about 8 percent up from the 2022 output and about 20 percent above the average of the previous five years.

Cereal production benefited from overall favourable weather conditions and less extensive flooding compared with recent years, which benefited yields, and from a 6 percent increase in the planted area compared to the previous year due to improved security conditions.

The overall cereal deficit in the January/December 2024 marketing year is estimated at 388 250 tonnes, about 9 and 20 percent, respectively, below the deficit estimated for 2023 and the 2019–2023 average. Despite the year‑on‑year decline, the cereal deficit is still substantial, with the net production in 2023 representing about 70 percent of the estimated cereal requirements in 2024.

Food prices surging in March 2024 following sharp depreciation of exchange rate

In the capital, Juba, prices of maize and sorghum surged by about 40 percent between February and March 2024, while prices of imported wheat soared by almost 60 percent over the same period. Subsequently, between March and April 2024, prices of maize and sorghum eased by 10–15 percent, while prices of imported wheat continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace, rising by 10 percent. In April 2024, prices of maize, sorghum and imported wheat were at near‑record to record levels, between two and three times their year‑earlier values.

The increase of cereal prices in March 2024 was caused by a sharp depreciation of the national currency, mainly as a result of the substantial reduction of oil exports due to damages to the pipelines passing through the Sudan and by disruptions in oil shipments via the Red Sea.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .