Reference Date: 24-March-2026

Improved precipitation and snow cover support winter cereal prospects in 2026

Planting of 2026 winter cereal crops was completed last November. Weather conditions were generally dry between October and November across most parts of the country, hampering planting operations. However, abundant precipitation amounts between December 2025 and January 2026 largely offset early soil moisture deficits and supported crop establishment. In te higher Central and Eastern Anatolia, snow cover in January is expected to protect from frost damage, while snowmelt in the spring months is likely to further replenish soil moisture levels. Geospatial indicators, as of the third dekad of February 2026, point to favourable crop conditions. Adequate rainfall and conducive temperatures during the spring season between March and May remain critical to sustain positive yield prospects.

Cereal production estimated at near-average level in 2025

According to latest official data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute, total 2025 cereal production is estimated at a below-average level of 34.2 million tonnes, with the wheat harvest estimated at about 18 million tonnes, over 10 percent below the average due to unfavourable rainfall in most major producing governorates. Maize production is estimated at 8.5 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average, reflecting an expansion in planted area driven by strong demand for feed from the domestic poultry sector.

Cereal import requirements estimated above average in 2025/26

Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (June/May) are forecast at 14.8 million tonnes. Wheat import requirements are expected at about near-average levels of 8.5 million tonnes, mostly to be processed into flour and pasta for export.

Cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year are estimated at 5.4 million tonnes, about 18 percent below the average, reflecting the tight domestic availability following the below-average wheat production harvested in 2025. Furthermore, exports of wheat flour are expected to be constrained by weak international demand, particularly from Iraq, a key market for locally produced wheat flour and stronger competition from other suppliers in export markets in Africa and the Near East.

Food inflation remains high in 2026

Annual food inflation stood at about 36 percent in February 2026. According to latest official data, the Agricultural input price index (Agricultural-IPI) increased by about 31 percent in January 2026 compared to 12 months earlier, increasing production costs and weighing on farmers’ profitability. Considering the higher production costs, as well as the sustained depreciation of the national currency which increased import costs, the national average retail prices of wheat flour and rice increased year‑on‑year by about 30 percent in February 2026.

High food prices constrain access to food for Syrians under temporary protection (SuTP)

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) , more than 600 000 Syrians have voluntarily returned to their country since December 2024. However, as of mid-February 2026, about 2.3 million Syrians under temporary protection (SuTP) were still locally registered. High food prices and living costs continue to constrain vulnerable households’ access to basic food needs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .