Reference Date: 24-September-2025

Near-average cereal production estimated in 2025

Harvest of the 2025 winter cereal crops initiated in June and was completed by mid-August 2025. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute , production is early estimated at 19.6 million tonnes of wheat and 7.5 million tonnes of barley, about 3 and 6 percent, respectively, below the average. Yields have been affected by dry weather conditions, particularly in the key producing regions of Central Anatolia where precipitation amounts between December 2024 and March 2025 have been about 40 percent below the average, limiting soil moisture levels. Although rainfall amounts improved in April and May, they were not sufficient to fully compensate the early deficits. Irrigated fields were also affected by low water levels in dams as dry weather conditions affected the Black Sea and other central regions. In early April, a widespread frost incidence hampered the vegetation particularly in the inner regions. Furthermore, access to agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, seeds and fuel, was hampered by their high prices. To limit inflationary pressure on farmers’ production costs, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) increased procurement prices for the 2025 durum and soft wheat by 35 and 46 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year.

The 2025 maize crops were planted last May and planted area is forecast about 7 percent above the average as farmers shifted from less profitable crops, such as cotton, and by the growing domestic poultry industry. Harvesting has started in August and production is officially forecast at 8.5 million tonnes, almost 10 percent above the average.

Above-average cereal imports forecast in 2025/26

Cereal imports in the 2025/26 marketing year (June/May) are forecast at 16.2 million tonnes. Wheat imports are expected at 10.3 million tonnes, about 23 percent above average, and they are mainly used to produce flour and pasta to be exported.

In the 2025/26 marketing year, cereal exports, with wheat accounting for the largest share, are preliminarily forecast at 5.4 million tonnes, about 18 percent below the five-year average, reflecting reduced domestic availability compared to the ample supplies in 2023/24, when wheat production was high and exports reached well above-average levels. Furthermore, subdued wheat flour demand from Iraq, the country’s major wheat flour market, is expected as Iraq continues to expand its local milling capacity, reducing flour imports. Competition from Egyptian flour in Africa and the Near East is also likely to constrain Turkish wheat flour exports.

Food inflation at high levels in 2025

Average food prices were about 33 percent higher in August 2025 than a year earlier. In July 2025, the national average retail price of wheat flour stood at 26.4 TRY/kg (0.66 USD/kg), nearly unchanged from the previous month, but about 26 percent higher year-on-year, reflecting high input costs due to local currency’s depreciation against the US dollar. The national average retail price of rice increased by 22 percent from July 2024, reflecting lower year-on-year domestic rice production in 2025 due to dry weather conditions coupled with local currency’s depreciation, which increased costs of rice imports, generally covering about one-third of domestic annual needs.

Syrians under temporary protection (SuTP) residing in country still requiring humanitarian assistance in 2025

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) , as of 4 September 2025, about 2.5 million registered SuTP were residing in the country, down from about 3 million at the end of 2024. The decline mainly reflects the political transition in the Syrian Arab Republic in late 2024, leading to voluntary returns. Rising inflation continues to reduce the purchasing power of vulnerable host communities and SuTP.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .