Reference Date: 25-July-2025

Cereal production rebounds to a bumper high in 2025

Cereal production in 2025, including a preliminary forecast for the winter wheat crop to be harvested in October, is pegged at 3.9 million tonnes. This figure is more than double the drought‑reduced output of 2024 and nearly 20 percent above the five‑year average. The production growth in 2025 is largely attributed to favourable weather conditions, with generally ample and well‑distributed rainfall, especially during the second half of the cropping season (January to April 2025). These conditions contributed to a recovery in yields to near-average levels and a significant increase in the harvested area.

Production of maize, which accounts for the bulk of the cereal output and is the country’s main food staple, increased to 3.6 million tonnes, matching the record attained in 2017. Sorghum and millet production also increased in 2025. While sorghum reached an above‑average level, the millet output remained slightly below average due to low yields.

Wheat production, the main winter crop grown almost entirely under irrigation, is forecast at 130 000 tonnes, significantly below the five‑year average. This outlook mainly reflects a reduction in the area planted, attributed in part to a delayed summer harvest that hindered planting operations and reports of reduced water levels for irrigation.

Reduced import needs and expectations of increased maize exports amid the strong production recovery

Reflecting the strong recovery in domestic cereal production in 2025, import needs have declined for the 2025/26 marketing year (May/April), following elevated levels in 2024/25. However, the estimated import requirement in 2025/26 remains above average, driven by increased wheat import needs due to the anticipated drop in domestic production. Wheat imports are forecast to rise well above the five‑year average level of 65 000 tonnes.

The recovery in maize production is expected to enable the country to return to a net exporter status, after negligible export volumes in 2024/25 due to the impact of the drought. Although export demand from neighbouring countries may be subdued in 2025/26, owing to a region‑wide production recovery, maize exports are still expected to reach average to above‑average levels.

Maize prices ease after hitting record highs in early 2025

The national average retail price of maize grain reached a record high in February 2025, primarily due to the significant supply shortfall caused by the drought in 2024. Additional upward pressure came from a weak currency and an increase in electricity tariffs, which pushed up production and distribution costs of food. 

Prices began to decline in March, mostly reflecting expectations of the large harvest in 2025. By June, maize grain prices were 30 percent lower year on year. The strengthening of national currency between April and June, underpinned by progress in debt restructuring and fiscal reforms, helped reduce the cost of imported food and ease pressure on retail food prices

Large agricultural output expected to improve acute food insecurity conditions

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, nearly 5.6 million people faced IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 236 000 people IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) between October 2024 and March 2025. This was more than double the figure in the corresponding period in 2023/24, reflecting the severity of the 2024 drought on household food supply and income-generating opportunities.

Given the predominant reliance on agriculture among the rural population, where acute food insecurity is largely concentrated, the strong recovery in agricultural production in 2025 is likely to be the key driver of improved acute food insecurity conditions in 2025/26. Lower food prices will further support access to food. However, pockets of acute food insecurity are expected to persist, primarily due to localized weather shocks and continued structural challenges.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .