Reference Date: 30-April-2026

Above‑average cereal output forecast for a second consecutive year in 2026

The main harvest of the 2026 summer season cereal crops, predominantly maize, is set to begin in May, with production forecast to exceed the five‑year average for a second consecutive year. This favourable outlook is supported by generally conducive weather conditions across most of the summer cropping season (typically October to May) in the key cereal‑producing Central, Copperbelt and Eastern provinces, which together account for approximately half of the domestic maize output. Total rainfall amounts between October 2025 and March 2026 were near to above average in these major producing areas. In early April 2026, remote sensing indicators showed improved vegetation conditions compared with the same period in 2025, when a near‑record maize harvest was gathered, suggesting likely above‑average yields and underpinning the positive production outlook in 2026.

The 2026 wheat crops are expected to be sown in May and production is forecast to recover from last year’s below‑average outturn, when electricity supply constraints hindered irrigation use and contributed to the lower harvest. The current 2026 outlook is supported by improved soil moisture conditions in April 2026, just prior to the main planting period, and a more stable electricity supply – abundant rainfall in 2025/26 has boosted water availability for hydropower generation – that would support irrigation use, as wheat production is fully irrigated.

Lower imports and higher exports in 2025/26

Following the strong rebound in production in 2025, cereal import requirements are estimated to have declined sharply in the 2025/26 marketing year (May/April) to a near‑average level, after peaking in 2024/25 as a result of the drought‑reduced 2024 harvest.

Improved domestic supply conditions have also enabled Zambia to return to net maize exporter status in 2025/26. A quota‑based export programme was introduced at the start of the marketing year in May 2025, while the authorities removed the remaining trade restrictions in April 2026. Looking ahead, domestic availabilities are expected to strengthen further in 2026/27, supported by higher carry‑over stocks and the anticipated above‑average harvest.

Maize prices decline due to large supplies

Prices of maize grain in March 2026 were 25 percent lower year on year, driven by ample domestic supplies and an appreciation of the national currency, which helped contain imported inflation. Similarly, maize meal prices declined by comparable margins over the same period.

The expected above‑average 2026 harvest, together with elevated stocks, should help keep staple food prices broadly stable or under downward pressure in the near term. However, upside risks remain, primarily through higher energy costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East. In April 2026, domestic pump prices of petrol and diesel were raised by 2 percent and 28 percent, respectively. These increases could be passed on to retail food prices, given the importance of energy in the transportation and processing of food products.

Prospects point to stable or improved acute food security

The number of people facing acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, was estimated at 1.7 million between October 2025 and March 2026, sharply lower than the 5.6 million people estimated in the same period of 2024/25. This improvement mainly reflects the rebound in agricultural production and lower food prices.

Acute food security conditions in 2026/27 are expected to remain stable and could even improve, supported by a second consecutive above‑average harvest in 2026. Nonetheless, higher energy costs could moderate improvements in food access, if these higher costs are transmitted to retail food prices, particularly in consideration of the large share of food in household expenditure.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .