Price indices for oilcrops and derived products
The indices are derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally traded products. Please note that in November 2013 some modifications have been introduced to the way the indices are calculated ; for details and to access the series of indices along with commentary on latest price developments click here.
Oilcrops, oils and meals market assessment - October 2016
Summary : After a tightening in market fundamentals in 2015/16,preliminary forecasts for the 2016/17 season point to a relatively balanced global supply and demand situation for both meals/cakes and oils/fats. In 2016/17, global oilseed production is forecast to recover fully from last season’s fall, possibly climbing to a new record. While the expansion would be led by soybeans,the other oilseeds are also anticipated to post sizeable gains,with the exception of rapeseed. Soybean growth would be concentrated in the United States, where record-high yields are set to boost output. In South America, production might grow only moderately, as farmers are expected to reduce soybean plantings in favour of competing crops. In China and India, production could expand, reversing the downward trend observed in recent years. Growth in global palm oil output is forecast to resume, as palms in Southeast Asia begin to recover from the effects of adverse weather in 2015/16. Based on current forecasts, world output and consumption of oils and meals would reach record levels in 2016/17. The current estimate for global meal uptake roughly matches that for global meal output, suggesting that global meal inventories would remain around last season’s level. By contrast, global oil consumption is projected to outstrip production by a small margin, therefore pointing to a modest reduction of world oil reserves. While the global stock-to-use ratios for both oils and meals are forecast to fall by a small margin, the major exporters’ stock-to-disappearance ratios could remain unchanged or even improve slightly. International trade in oils/fats is forecast to grow at a faster pace than last season, fueled by the anticipated recovery in palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia. The outlook is less buoyant for world meal trade, which could face slowing growth, mainly reflecting subdued import demand by China. Regarding prices, after gaining strength earlier this year,international quotations for oils and meals entered, since June, a phase of instability. In the coming months, prices are expected to be much affected by developments impacting soybeans in South America and palm oil in Southeast Asia. Read full document
The Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update (MPPU) is an information product provided by the oilseeds desk of the Trade and Markets Division. As a complement to our bi-annual market reports, this brief note follows two purposes: first, to review the development of international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals as reflected by FAO’s specific price indices and second, to spot recent policy and market events - selected from a variety of sources - that are deemed important for the global oilseed economy. The brief shall be issued in the second week of each month, for a total of 10 issues per year. The note, which will be available in English only, will be posted on this web page as well as sent to subscribers of the Oilcrops Market Network.
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