Price indices for oilcrops and derived products
The indices are derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally traded products. Please note that in November 2013 some modifications have been introduced to the way the indices are calculated ; for details and to access the series of indices along with commentary on latest price developments click here.
Oilcrops, oils and meals market assessment - May 2015
Summary : The latest forecasts for the 2014/15 season point towards a further easing of the global supply and demand balance for oilseeds products. Driven by bumper soybean crops in the United States and South American countries, global oilseed production is expected to expand significantly for the third consecutive season. Such an increase, together with sizeable opening stocks, will facilitate a strong expansion in global supplies of oils/fats and even more so of meals/cakes. On the demand side, growth in oils/fats consumption could slow in 2014/15, largely due to a subdued demand from the biodiesel sector, while global meal consumption is seen expanding at an about-average rate. As production of oilseed products is anticipated to exceed utilization by an ample margin, especially in the case of meals, a sharp rise in global inventories appears likely. Year-on-year, carry-out stocks are currently projected to increase by 11 percent for oils/fats and by a stunning 34 percent for meals/cakes, mainly due to soy/ meal. Responding to the positive supply and demand prospects, international prices for most oilseeds and oilseed products eased during the first half of 2014/15. In April 2015, FAO’s price indices for the oilseed complex not only ranged 20–30 percent below their corresponding 2014 values, they also tumbled to 5–6 year lows. The latest harvest updates in the Southern Hemisphere and the first planting indications for next season in the Northern Hemisphere, suggest that international prices could remain under pressure for the next few months. With regard to international trade, current forecasts indicate a deceleration in the volume of transactions in both oilseeds and oilseed products – despite the recent slide in prices. Incomplete and highly tentative forecasts for 2015/16 suggest that, after three consecutive rises, global oilseed production could contract in the coming season, with the largest dip seen for soybeans. Nonetheless, considering the current season’s prospective record-high carry-out stocks, a production decrease would not necessarily lead to tightness in global markets. Read full document
The Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update (MPPU) is an information product provided by the oilseeds desk of the Trade and Markets Division. As a complement to our bi-annual market reports, this brief note follows two purposes: first, to review the development of international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals as reflected by FAO’s specific price indices and second, to spot recent policy and market events - selected from a variety of sources - that are deemed important for the global oilseed economy. The brief shall be issued in the second week of each month, for a total of 10 issues per year. The note, which will be available in English only, will be posted on this web page as well as sent to subscribers of the Oilcrops Market Network.
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