Price indices for oilcrops and derived products
The indices are derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally traded products. Please note that in November 2013 some modifications have been introduced to the way the indices are calculated ; for details and to access the series of indices along with commentary on latest price developments click here.
Oilcrops, oils and meals market assessment - October 2015
Summary : the current outlook for the 2015/16 marketing season points to further improvement in the global supply and demand balance for oilseeds and oilmeals, while that of oils/fats could tighten.
Oilseed production in 2015/16 is forecast to trail behind last season’s record level on account of lower rapeseed, soybean and cottonseed outputs. Soy production could decrease slightly in both the United States and South America as yields drop from last season’s unprecedented high level. Regarding rapeseed, adverse weather conditions compromised production prospects in the world’s two leading producers, the EU and Canada, while global cottonseed output is expected to decrease on reduced plantings. Output from oil palms could grow at a below average rate, due to unfavourable weather. While 2015/16 crop projections foreshadow stagnation of oils/fats production, global oils/fats consumption is forecast to expand further, possibly requiring some downsizing of inventories. For meals/cakes, a small surplus in global production relative to demand could push global inventories beyond last season’s record level. Based on current forecasts, a year-on-year drop in the stock-to-use ratio for oils/fats seems likely, while the stock-to-use ratio for meals/cakes would match last season’s exceptionally high level. International trade in oilseeds and derived products is forecast to expand further in 2015/16, albeit less than in recent years. In the case of oils/fats, the anticipated slowdown mainly reflects possible drops in imports by China and India, underpinned by, respectively, large inventories and production gains. Regarding meals/cakes, China, the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, may see import growth slow for several reasons, including low soybean processing margins, the availability of large stocks, and the recent depreciation of China’s currency. Read full document
The Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update (MPPU) is an information product provided by the oilseeds desk of the Trade and Markets Division. As a complement to our bi-annual market reports, this brief note follows two purposes: first, to review the development of international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals as reflected by FAO’s specific price indices and second, to spot recent policy and market events - selected from a variety of sources - that are deemed important for the global oilseed economy. The brief shall be issued in the second week of each month, for a total of 10 issues per year. The note, which will be available in English only, will be posted on this web page as well as sent to subscribers of the Oilcrops Market Network.
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