Reference Date: 22-May-2023

Heightened violence and protracted economic crisis continue to affect food security

A sharp deterioration of the security situation since June 2021 has severely affected livelihoods and reduced availability of food. According to the Data in Emergencies Monitoring (DIEM) brief published by FAO in March 2023 , more than half of the crop producers reported difficulty in selling their harvests, primarily due to insecurity. Gangs have gained control of major roads that connect the capital and to other parts of the country, reducing the supply of food and fuel, and constraining access to markets and to basic services. Amid the political instability, the security situation is likely to deteriorate , with a detrimental impact on the food security situation.

The annual inflation rate in 2023 is forecast at a very high level of 44.5 percent, marking the eighth consecutive year of double‑digit inflation, further diminishing the already weak purchasing power of households. The heightened insecurity has hindered public and private investments. The weakening of the national currency also contributed to elevated inflation, given the high reliance on imports. In April 2023, the gourde has lost 46 percent of its value against the US dollar compared to one year earlier.

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the number of people facing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) is estimated at a record of 4.9 million (49 percent of the analysed population) in the March‑June 2023 period, up from the 4.5 million in the same period in 2022. Food insecurity has been worsening since 2018, reflecting the sustained economic downturn, natural disasters and below‑average agricultural production, compounded by surging gang violence.

Planted area to 2023 main maize and paddy crops expected at below‑average level

Planting of the 2023 main season maize and paddy crops is nearing completion with some delay due to the late onset of seasonal rains. Some regions (Great South) experienced episodes of drought when the rainy season had started and crop growth had begun. In other areas, precipitation amounts improved in April, high temperatures and below‑average rainfall amounts resulted in poor vegetation conditions across the country (VHI map). Planted area of maize and paddy crops is expected to remain at below‑average levels, due to the adverse weather conditions at planting, but also by the low availability of seeds and the high costs of agricultural inputs and fuel.

Weather forecasts indicate average to above‑average rainfall amounts and high temperatures in the June‑August period. Although abundant rains are generally favourable for crop development, the combination with the elevated temperatures may cause pest infestations and thus, a close monitoring is required. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June to November, is forecast to be more active than average. If a hurricane makes a landfall, torrential rains and strong winds could damage standing crops, affecting livelihoods of farmers and reducing the availability of food.

Cereal imports anticipated at low levels in 2022/23

The cereal imports for the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June), mostly wheat and rice for food consumption, are anticipated at low levels due to the country’s low financial capacity to face high international commodity prices with the weakening of the gourde. Higher year‑on‑year export prices of rice in the United States of America, the country’s main supplier, have curbed domestic demand.

Prices of staple food items higher year‑on‑year in March 2023

Prices of local maize meal and black beans generally rose during the first three months of 2023, reflecting seasonally low availabilities. Prices of the two staple crops were well above their year‑earlier levels in March, due to tight supplies from the below‑average 2022 production, high transport costs and difficult access to markets. Prices of rice have been mostly on the rise throughout 2022 and first months of 2023, following upward trends in prices of imported rice. The sustained weakening of the gourde provided additional upward pressure on prices of imported food items, such as rice, wheat flour and vegetable oil. In general, food prices were at high levels, with the annual food inflation rate estimated at 48 percent in February 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .