Reference Date: 26-March-2025

Abundant rainfall amounts in January improved conditions of 2025 cereal crops

The 2025 winter cereal cropping season started with dry weather conditions during the planting period in October and November 2024. However, abundant rainfall amounts in January 2025 improved soil moisture in the northern region. Favourable weather conditions, coupled with financial support provided by the National Bank with the aim to expand the planted area, are likely to benefit output prospects in 2025. If favourable weather conditions persist through March and May 2025, yields are expected at above-average levels.

Cereal crop production recovered in 2024 compared to previous year drought-affected output

Cereal production in 2024 is estimated at about 1.5 million tonnes, nearly three times higher than the drought-affected 2023 output, yet remaining about 6 percent below the five-year average. Despite some delay in winter grain planting due to limited rainfall amounts and high temperatures, crop growth improved in northern and central regions, reflecting favourable weather conditions between December 2023 and April 2024.

Cereal import requirements forecast at below-average level in 2025

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at below-average 3.5 million tonnes. Wheat imports, which constitute more than half of aggregate cereal imports, are forecast at about 2 million tonnes, about 2 percent above the average, driven by the abundant wheat production harvested in 2024.

Food inflation eased in 2024 and early 2025

Food inflation eased throughout 2024, reaching about 7 percent in February 2025 compared to the same month the previous year, down from a peak of around 16 percent in May 2023. The year-on-year rise was driven by the sharp increases in bovine meat, fish and poultry prices, up 21.4, 13.4 and 10.5 percent, respectively, while oil prices fell by about 16.2 percent.

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This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .