Reference Date: 22-January-2025

Concerns for 2025 Msimu crops due to erratic early season rains in key cropping areas

In southern and central unimodal rainfall areas, planting of the 2025 major Msimu crops, to be harvested from May 2025, concluded last December. The first part of the rainy season, normally extending from November until April of the following year, has been characterized by below-average rainfall amounts and by an erratic temporal distribution. In several key cropping areas, including western Mbeya, Rukwa, Katavi regions and southern Ruvuma Region, the unfavourable weather conditions affected planting operations and germination of early planted crops.

In northeastern bimodal rainfall areas, planting of Masika crops, for harvest from July, will commence in mid-February.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), rainfall amounts between March and May are expected to be above average across most of the country, with a likely impact on yields of both crops.

Record 2024 cereal production due to abundant and well distributed precipitation

In central and southern unimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the 2024 (October-December) Vuli secondary season crops is currently underway. Early season moisture deficits were offset by above-average rainfall amounts in November and December, lifting crop production prospects. In the same areas, the 2024 Masika harvest, concluded last August, had a good performance due to above-average and well-distributed March-May rains. In central and southern unimodal rainfall areas, the 2024 major Msimu harvest was completed last June and cereal production is estimated at above-average levels due to abundant precipitation amounts which boosted yields.

Cereal production in 2024 is forecast at a record level of 13.9 million tonnes, about 22 percent above the average production obtained in 2023.

Prices of maize at low levels due to ample domestic availability

The national average price of maize unseasonally increased by 16 percent between June and November, mainly due to sustained export demand from South African countries, where the 2024 cereal output was sharply reduced by a drought. However, despite the recent increases, prices remained about 20 percent lower on a yearly basis, due to ample domestic availability.

Pockets of food insecurity due to the lingering impact on crops and livestock of dry weather conditions in 2023

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, an estimated 379 000 people were projected to face severe acute food insecurity between May and October 2024 in 21 analyzed mainland districts. The food insecurity situation was mainly driven by the lingering impact on crops and livestock of dry weather conditions in 2023, coupled with outbreaks of pest and diseases, which reduced food availability. Food access was affected by reduced farming incomes caused by limited labour opportunities as dry weather conditions affected agricultural operations and reduced labour demand, and by low livestock selling prices as shortages of pasture and water affected animal body condition.

As of end-2024, about 231 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, were residing in the country. More than 80 percent of the refugees and asylum seekers live in Nyarugusu and Nduta camps in western Kigoma Region, near the border with Burundi. Most refugees and asylum seekers lack adequate access to livelihood opportunities and rely entirely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .