Overview:

El Niño forcing continues to dominate the seasonal precipitation forecasts, and the outlook is nearly unchanged from last month, with minor changes in the predicted precipitation anomalies in a few regions. First, the dry signal has intensified over western India and southeastern Pakistan in August and September, reflecting both the stronger El Niño signal and a slightly less positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase. Wet conditions are still expected to develop across the Horn of Africa in September, extending to northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East in October, with stronger August–October dryness in India and Pakistan, while wetter conditions are expected in western Africa. Another minor shift is a stronger wet signal across the northern Sahel from September through November, with the notable wet anomaly likely indicating a delayed end to the rainy season. Summer breeding will occur in Mauritania and, at a smaller scale, in other Sahelian areas. Breeding should continue in the Western Region during August and September, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Morocco with widespread groups of adults.

• Current situation: Several immature adult groups formed over widespread areas in Morocco. In Algeria, a few immature adult groups were found, together with isolated and scattered hoppers and adults. In Mauritania, isolated and scattered adults were observed, while groups were reported by locals early in the month. Isolated adults were seen in Iran. No locusts were reported elsewhere. 

• Control operations: Doubled in June (88 501 ha treated) compared to May (41 946 ha).

• Forecast: Adult groups may form small swarms in Morocco, where maturation may progress, and some mature groups may migrate towards the Oriental region and western Algeria, where breeding could continue in July. However, most groups may move southwards into Mauritania or other Sahelian countries, where summer breeding is expected to begin. 

Overview:

The dynamical models indicate that El Niño conditions are persisting, with a likelihood of becoming one of the strongest on record. Drier‑than‑normal conditions are expected in East Africa, the Red Sea area, and the Arabian Peninsula during July and August, while above‑normal rainfall is forecast in northern Africa. From September onwards, wetter conditions are expected to develop in association with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, expanding to widespread above‑normal rainfall across northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East by October. Drier‑than‑normal conditions are expected to persist in India until October. Gregarious breeding will conclude in Morocco and Algeria. Summer breeding will begin in Mauritania and, at a smaller scale, in other Sahelian areas in July. Breeding should continue in the Western Region during August and September, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert locust outbreak continued in #Morocco with widespread groups of hoppers and adults.
• Current situation: Several hopper groups and a few bands formed over widespread areas in Morocco, where numerous immature adult groups also developed. In #Algeria, a few immature adult groups were present, together with scattered hoppers and hopper groups. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
  Control operations: Increased in May (41 792 ha treated) compared to April (39 025 ha).
• Forecast: Fledging will continue in Morocco, leading to an increase in immature adult groups and small swarms. These will eventually mature and lay in suitable breeding areas, while most of them are expected to migrate to Algeria or Mauritania during June and July.
  

Overview:

The models indicate that the transition into El Niño conditions is progressing as expected, with this event likely to become one of the strongest on record. These conditions, together with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, are expected to result in drier‑than‑normal conditions across the Horn of Africa, the southern Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan and India during the three coming months. Below‑normal rainfall is also forecast across the northern Sahel from Senegal to the Red Sea, while above‑normal rainfall is expected in northwestern Africa. From September onwards, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to favour above‑normal rainfall in East Africa during the autumn. Gregarious spring breeding will continue in Morocco and may extend into Algeria. Summer breeding may occur in atypical areas in the Western Region, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Morocco with further breeding.
• Current situation: Hopper groups and small bands appeared at many sites across Morocco, while breeding mature adult groups declined during the second half of the month; a few adult groups were observed breeding in Algeria. Only isolated locusts were detected in the Canary Islands. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: Increased in April (39 025 ha treated) compared to March (25 137 ha).
• Forecast: Hopper groups may continue developing in Morocco and appear in Algeria. New adult groups may appear and move northwards for further spring breeding, and southwards into Mauritania.

Overview:

Climate models expect a rapid transition to El Niño conditions in the Pacific in the coming month, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These signals are likely to generate wetter‑than‑normal conditions across all regions in May, followed by dry conditions in the southern parts of the Central and Eastern Regions. The summer breeding areas of the Western Region may receive above‑normal rainfall in northern areas, particularly toward the end of summer, while drier‑than‑normal conditions are forecast in the Central and Eastern Regions. Small‑scale spring breeding is still possible in Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan. Gregarious spring breeding is likely to continue in Morocco and may extend into Algeria. Summer breeding in the Sahel may occur, with an increasing risk of outbreaks toward the end of summer.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Western Sahara and Morocco while spreading northwards.
• Current situation: Adult groups moved northward in Western Sahara and Morocco, where breeding increased; hopper groups and bands appeared in Morocco; a few adult groups reached Algeria. Some locusts were also detected in the Canary Islands. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: Decreased in March (25 137 ha treated) compared to February (34 564 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms may continue moving northward into Morocco and Algeria, where increasing breeding may produce new hopper groups and small bands.

Overview:

Climate models continue to indicate a rapid transition to El Niño in the Pacific by late spring, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These signals are expected to generate wetter-than-normal conditions across all Regions during the spring. In summer, wet conditions may persist in the Western Region, while  drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for Eastern African, the Arabian Peninsula and the Eastern Region. Spring breeding is expected to remain small‑scale in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Iran, and Pakistan. In the Western Region, gregarious spring breeding is likely in Morocco and may extend into Algeria, and potentially later into Tunisia and Libya. Summer breeding in the Sahel could begin earlier than usual, increasing the risk of outbreaks toward the end of the summer if predicted rainfall patterns materialize.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious Desert Locust outbreak continued in Western Sahara and southern Morocco.
• Current situation: Adult groups increased and moved northward in Western Sahara and Morocco where breeding resumed; some adult groups reached the Canary Islands and Algeria. Some locusts were also detected in Mauritania, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea. 
• Control and operations:  Decreased in February (34 564 ha treated) compared to January (47 358 ha).
• Forecasts: Adult groups and small swarms may continue moving northward into Morocco and Algeria where breeding may produce new hopper groups and small bands.

Overview:

Climate models continue to indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a rapid transition to El Niño in the Pacific over the coming months. These conditions are expected to increase rainfall across the Central and Eastern Regions during the spring. Tropical cyclones may develop over the Arabian Peninsula and will need to be closely monitored. Spring breeding in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan is likely to begin on a small scale in March but may continue throughout the season. In the Western Region, models now forecast dry to normal conditions this spring across northwestern Africa. However, since gregarious breeding has resumed in Morocco, localized breedings are expected to persist through the end of winter and into spring, potentially extending into Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara in Mauritania and Western Sahara split into two distinct areas in January.
• Current situation: At the beginning of January, winds pushed groups and small swarms away from the Mauritanian coast, leading to the formation of two hotspots. In the south, between southern Mauritania and northern Senegal, several small immature swarms were observed. In the north, from northern Mauritania to southern Morocco, late‑instar hopper groups coexisted with immature, maturing, and locally mature adult groups. Adults were also reported in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Survey and control operations must remain intensive from northern Senegal to southern Morocco, with additional surveys needed in Algeria. Monitoring should continue in the other countries.
• Forecasts: Breeding may resume in Mauritania and extend into Senegal. Mature adult groups could also breed as far north as southern Morocco, leading to new hopper bands in February. Small‑scale breeding may also occur in the Central Region.

Overview:

The establishment of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole circulation over the next two months, followed by the onset of El Niño in the Pacific in April, is becoming increasingly likely. Accordingly, seasonal models once again indicate a tendency toward wet conditions from Northwest Africa to the Middle East in February and continuing through May. Subseasonal models also forecast several rainy episodes over the next three weeks across various spring breeding areas. In the western region, a third generation of breeding could still occur north of the ongoing outbreak. The wet conditions expected in February could favour significant spring breeding in Morocco and Algeria, and possibly in Libya and Tunisia. In the central and eastern regions, above‑normal rainfall from February to June could support small‑scale spring breeding in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious Desert Locust outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara split into two areas.
• Current situation: Adult groups and small swarms were present in southern Mauritania and northern Senegal, adult groups increased while hopper groups and bands were fledging in Western Sahara, some adult groups reached Tan-Tan in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen.
• Control operations: Decreased in January (45 943 ha treated) compared to December (82 389 ha).
• Forecast: Small swarms and adult groups may continue to migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Some may reach Algeria. Breeding may resume in Western Sahara.
  

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak remained serious in Mauritania and Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Numerous adult groups and small swarms were present in Mauritania, while hopper groups and bands were fledging into adult groups and small swarms in Western Sahara. Adult groups spread from northern Senegal to near Tan-Tan in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Algeria, Niger, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen.
• Control operations: Increased in December (81 654 ha treated) compared to November (33 273 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding may resume in Mauritania and Western Sahara. Small swarms may migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Some may reach Algeria and Senegal. Groups may appear in Sudan.

Overview: 

Contrary to previous forecasts, seasonal models now indicate a trend toward drier conditions from northwestern Africa to the Middle East in January and February. However, subseasonal models predict rain events over the next four weeks across the three regions, and wet conditions could return in March and April in spring breeding areas. Depending on the development of El Niño conditions during spring, these wet conditions may persist, although confidence remains low at this stage. In the Western Region, as temperatures rise in January, a third generation of breeding could expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions may continue into spring breeding in northwestern Africa. In the Central and Eastern Regions, above-normal rainfall in March and April could support small-scale spring breeding in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara continued in December.
• Current situation: Immature adult groups and swarms as well as hopper groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adults were also reported in Algeria, Senegal, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations need to be further intensified from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco and surveys are also required in Algeria, Senegal, Mali and Niger.
• Forecasts: A third generation of breeding is expected from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, likely resulting in new bands in late January. Small-scale breeding may also start in January along the Red Sea.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak remained serious in Mauritania and Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Numerous hopper groups and bands were present in Western Sahara and Mauritania where immature adult groups and small swarms appeared. Adult groups spread from northern Senegal to near Tiznit in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Niger, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen. 
• Control operations: Increased in November (30 860 ha treated) compared to October (10 180 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will restart in Mauritania and adult groups emerge in Western Sahara. Small swarms may migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Algeria and Sudan. 

Key points:

• Overview: The outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara persisted in November.
• Current situation: Hopper groups and bands as well as adult groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in Niger, Chad, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations must continue in Algeria, and from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco.
• Forecasts: The northward migration is expected to continue and a third-generation of breeding may start in December from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, generating new bands in January. Small-scale breeding may start in December along the Red Sea.

Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions in November. In the Western Region, above-normal rainfall is likely in December in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Morocco, and Algeria, which may favour breeding and expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions could continue into spring in Algeria, Libya, and northern Sahel areas, supporting locust breeding. In the Central Region, as negative IOD conditions weaken, rains may start around the Red Sea in December in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan. Above-normal rainfall may persist through April, supporting breeding along Red Sea coasts in winter and in interior areas during spring. In the Eastern Region, dry conditions prevail until December. From January to April, near- to above-normal rainfall may allow small-scale spring breeding in Iran and Pakistan.