Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak intensified in Mauritania and spread into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Breeding adult groups, hopper groups and bands increased in Mauritania and breeding groups spread into Western Sahara. Locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Sudan and Yemen and a few in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
• Control operations: Increased in October (9 890 ha treated) compared to September (4 543 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara with new adult groups and small swarms. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Chad, Morocco, Algeria and Sudan.  

Key points:

• Overview: The localized outbreak in Mauritania has spread throughout western Mauritania and into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and scattered adults are found breeding over 800 km from southwestern Mauritania to Oum Dreyga in Western Sahara. Hopper groups and bands of the second generation appeared in Mauritania. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in several sites in Chad. 
• Control and surveys:  Surveys are essential in all countries. Control operations need to be intensified in Mauritania and will likely be required in Algeria, Mali, Morocco, and Niger.
• Forecasts: The second-generation breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara, generating bands and later small swarms that will migrate northward. Adult groups may appear in other Sahelian countries as well as Algeria, and later Morocco.

Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions through November, with localized rainfall possibly occurring in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Algeria, Oman, Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. December may bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Western and Central Regions, especially in Mauritania, Western Sahara, and along the Red Sea coasts, followed by near-normal conditions in January and February. Hence, locust breeding is expected to potentially increase in December, particularly in Mauritania and the Red Sea coasts. Spring could be wetter than normal in Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan, where spring breeding could be favoured. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to persist into November, causing dryness, while La Niña may bring wetter conditions to northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula in winter and spring—though this trend is weak and needs to be confirmed.

Key points

• Overview: A desert locust outbreak continued to develop in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Adults and hoppers in Chad, Niger, Senegal and adults in Sudan. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Increased in September (4 379 ha) compared to August (601 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, and conclude in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. Groups will continue to appear in Mauritania and maybe in Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria and Sudan. No significant development expected along the India-Pakistan border.  

Overview:

Above-normal rainfall is expected in late September across the northern Sahel, Sudan, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and along the Indo-Pakistan border, and may persist into early October in West Africa and the Indo-Pakistan border area. A drying trend is anticipated across most regions in October and November due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In December, rainfall may return to localized areas in all three regions, particularly along the Red Sea coasts of Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, and could persist through February. Above-normal rainfall is also forecast for spring breeding areas in the Central and Eastern Regions. These rainfall patterns will support locust breeding in the northern Sahel and Sudan through September and early October. Breeding should decrease in November but may intensify again from December to March, especially along the Red Sea coasts.

Key points

• Overview: A small Desert Locust outbreak developed in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Isolated adults in Chad. In the Central Region, scattered adults in Sudan and isolated adults in Egypt. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Decreased in August (573 ha) compared to July (6 421 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria, Sudan, and may start in Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen. Groups may continue to appear in the western Sahel. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Persistant above-normal rainfall is expected through late August and September across the northern Sahel from Niger to Sudan, the southern Arabian peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. A drying trend is still anticipated in October and November, except along the Indo-Pakistan border, which may continue to receive good rains until monsoon withdraws in October. However, some above-average rains may return in December in the Western and Central regions. These rainfall patterns will continue to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The dry conditions expected to develop in October and November are associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase. However, this negative IOD may weaken by November.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks declined significantly in the northern areas of the Western Region.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups decreased in Algeria and disappeared from Tunisia and Morocco. Adult groups and scattered adults in Mauritania. Isolated adults in Chad and Niger. In the Central Region, a few groups remained in Egypt. Scattered adults in Sudan. A few adults are present in Pakistan along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Decreased in July (6 421 ha) compared to June (23 014 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups could still emerge in the Sahel in August. Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, and may start in southern Algeria and Eritrea. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

The multi-model precipitation outlook continues to indicate a generally wet summer across the northern Sahel from Mali to Sudan, across the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected during August and September. A drying trend is anticipated in October and November, with dry conditions prevailing across most areas. However, some rains and residual moisture may persist in December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and Niger. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. Dry conditions are expected to develop and expand in East Africa during Northern Hemisphere autumn in association with the negative IOD phase.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks declined in the northern areas of the Western Region but will shift south.
• Current situation: Hopper bands and immature swarms reported in Libya, while groups persisted in Algeria and decreased in Tunisia and Morocco. Adult groups were still present in Niger. Scattered adults in Mauritania. In the Central Region, a few groups remained in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Decreased in June (22 514 ha) compared to May (45 403 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms will move from North Africa southwest toward the Sahel in July. Summer breeding will start in southern Algeria, southwestern Libya, Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania and possibly Sudan. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Seasonal and subseasonal models continue to indicate a generally wet summer across the Sahel, southern Sahara, northeastern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected from July through September. A gradual drying trend is anticipated from October onward, with dry conditions returning across most areas by November. However, some residual moisture may persist into December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and parts of Yemen and Oman. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The forecasted summer rains are being driven by persistent La Niña-like conditions, while the expected drying in autumn aligns with projections for the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. 

Key points

• Overview: Desert locust outbreaks persisted in the Western Region
• Current situation: Hopper bands and immature adult groups increased in Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Adult groups and hoppers were also present in Morocco, Niger, and Chad. Scattered adults in Mauritania. In the Central Region, a few swarms and hopper bands in Egypt, adult groups in Sudan and a few bands in Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Increased in May (44 892 ha) compared to April (35 614 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms will continue forming in North Africa and begin moving southwest toward the Sahel in June and July. Summer breeding may start in southern Algeria, northern Niger, and Mauritania. Spring breeding will end in Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, with adults moving south. Very small-scale breeding may begin along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Contrary to earlier forecasts, both seasonal and subseasonal models now predict a relatively dry June in the Sahel, while pre-monsoon rains may still occur in India and Pakistan. However, a generally wet summer is expected across all three regions, with above-normal rainfall likely from July to September in the Sahel and southern Sahara of northern Africa, along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, the Horn of Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. Dry conditions are expected to return with the onset of winter. The anticipated above-normal rainfall this summer is associated with weak La Niña-like conditions.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks persisted in southern Sahara and Northwestern Africa
• Current situation: Groups, breeding and bands increased in Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia; adult groups in Niger, breeding and groups in Morocco, adults and a small band in Chad. Adult groups and swarms declined along the Nile Valley of Sudan and Egypt; few bands and adult groups in Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Doubled during April (34 436 ha) compared to March (17 962 ha)
• Forecast: Spring breeding will continue in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia with new hopper groups and bands. Adult groups and small swarms may migrate to Chad, Niger and Mali. Small-scale spring breeding may persist along the Nile Valley in Sudan and Egypt, and in the interior of Saudi Arabia. Control operations will be required.

Key points

• Overview: The outbreaks that spread to northwestern Africa in February and March continued in April.
• Current situation: Adult groups and bands increase in Sahara, while few groups and bands along the Nile Valley.
• Control and surveys: Surveys and controls are necessary in all potential spring breeding areas of the Western Region to avoid further development; maintain surveys in Central Region.
• Forecasts: Spring breeding is expected to continue in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia and will form adult groups and small swarms from May to June that could then move south to the Sahel.

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models predict below-normal rainfall in northern Africa during the rest of the spring. This includes the Sahara region from Morocco to Libya, the interior of Egypt, Sudan, the Arabian Peninsula, southeastern Iran, and southwestern Pakistan. For the summer season, above-normal rainfall is expected to begin in June along the central Sahel from Niger to Sudan, as well as the pre-monsoon of Indo-Pakistan. From July to September, above-normal rains are forecasted in the Sahel and southern Sahara of northern Africa, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, the Horn of Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. Below-normal rainfall is expected in October. Above-normal rainfall this summer is connected to La Niña conditions, which are likely to prevail.

Key points

• Overview: The desert locust outbreak of southern Sahara expanded to Northwestern Africa
• Current situation: Several breeding adult groups in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and southern Tunisia; hopper groups in Algeria, few small bands in Chad, Libya and Morocco. Adult groups and swarms along the Nile Valley of Sudan and Egypt; hopper bands in Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Decreased during March (17 962 ha) compared to February (25 748 ha)
• Forecast: Numbers will increase with spring breeding in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia with hopper groups and bands.  Spring breeding will occur along the Nile Valley in northern Sudan and southern Egypt, and in the interior of Saudi Arabia. Control operations will be required.

Key points

• Overview: The outbreak that began in December in the Sahel spread to North Africa during February and March.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and small swarms arrived in central Algeria, western Libya and southern Tunisia.
• Control and surveys: Needed in all potential areas of the Western Region to better understand the situation and avoid further development.
• Forecast: Spring breeding in central Algeria, western Libya and southern Tunisia will generate small bands of hoppers from the beginning of April. These bands could lead to new small swarms from May until June.

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models predict a change in northern Africa compared to last month. Consequently, the widespread above-normal rainfall during spring in Algeria and Libya from April to June is no longer indicated. Instead, precipitation will likely be normal or slightly dry in these regions. Dry conditions will persist across the Red Sea, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Horn of Africa, as well as southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan. For the summer, the models suggest wet conditions from July to August or September along the northern Sahel from Mali to Eritrea, extending further north to northern Sudan and southern Egypt, and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. The primary cause of this summer’s anomaly is a typical La Niña event.

Key points:

• Overview: Outbreaks persisted in northern Sudan and the southern Sahara
• Current situation: Adult groups and swarms along the Nile Valley of Sudan and Egypt; hopper bands in Saudi Arabia. Groups and breeding in Algeria; small swarms in Chad; groups in Libya and Niger; adults in Morocco.
• Control operations: Decreased during February (25 058 ha) compared to January (41 877 ha)
• Forecast: Spring breeding is expected to commence along the Nile Valley in northern Sudan and southern Egypt, and in the interior of Saudi Arabia. Numbers are expected to increase in Algeria and Libya with hopper groups and bands and some will persist in Niger and Chad. Some control operations will be required.