Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models predict above-average rainfall in northern Africa’s Sahara, particularly in Algeria and Libya, during the spring months of March and April. In contrast, dry conditions and below-normal precipitation are expected to persist from the Horn of Africa to the southern Red Sea and the southern Arabian Peninsula through May. For the summer, the models indicate a potential for increased rainfall in the northern Sahel of Africa and along the Indo-Pakistan border in July and August. La Niña conditions developed in December 2024 and are expected to persist through March–April 2025. While they may extend into the summer, it is still too early to confirm.

Key points:

• Overview: Outbreaks continued in Sudan, Eritrea and in the northern Sahel of Niger and southern Algeria.
• Current situation: Groups, bands and small swarms in Sudan; groups in Eritrea and Saudi Arabia; scattered locusts and a few swarms in Egypt; few swarms in Oman. Groups and breeding in Algeria; small swarms and breeding in Chad; groups in Niger; scattered adults and hoppers in Mali; adults in Morocco. 
• Control operations: Doubled during January (37 727 ha) compared to December (16 991 ha).
• Forecast: Second-generation breeding is expected to continue with hoppers, groups and maybe few bands along the coast of Sudan and Saudi Arabia, and perhaps southeast Egypt and Eritrea. New hopper groups will appear in southern Algeria and adult groups will persist in Algeria, northern Niger and Chad. Some control operations will be required.
  

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models for February through April suggest dryness across the Central Region from the southern Arabian Peninsula to southwest Asia. In February, both sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions highlight unusually dry conditions across North Africa and the Near East. A second generation of winter breeding will persist along the Red Sea coasts. As noted last month, northwestern Africa tends to receive ample rains in late winter during La Niña, followed by wetter spring in the Sahara. Above-normal rainfall and warmer temperatures in spring are expected to support breeding from March along parts of northern Mali, Niger, Chad, Morocco, southern Algeria, and southwest Libya. Below-normal rainfall is expected in southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan during the spring, while pre-monsoon rain could occur in June along the Indo-Pakistan border. 

Key points

• Overview: The December outbreak in Niger is probably an indicator of a more general situation in the Western Region. The two outbreaks in the Central Region remain.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups in northern Sahel and southern Sahara, while groups, bands and swarms around the Red Sea coast.
• Control and surveys: Necessary in all potential areas of the Western Region to better understand the situation and avoid further development; maintain ongoing efforts in Central Region. 

• January–March: Small-scale breeding may continue in northern Mali, Niger and Chad as well as southern Algeria; breeding will persist along the Red Sea.

Key points:

• Overview: Outbreaks continued in Niger and Sudan; small outbreak developed in Eritrea
• Current situation: Groups, bands and small swarms in Sudan; groups and bands in Eritrea; scattered locusts and a few groups along the coasts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen; few swarms in Oman; isolated adults in northwest Somalia and India. Groups in Niger and Algeria; isolated hoppers and adults in Mauritania; few adults in Morocco.
• Control operations: Increase during December (14 553 ha) compared to November (4 162 ha)
• Forecast: Second-generation breeding is expected to continue with hatching, hoppers groups, and bands increasing from early January onwards along the coast of Sudan, Eritrea, and possibly southeast Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Small groups could persist in northern Niger and southern Algeria. Some control operations will be required.
  

Overview:

Similar to last month, the latest seasonal dynamical models suggest that a La Niña-like dry pattern will
continue from East Africa to the Near East during the next few months. However, the anticipated dryness is
not as pronounced as in previous forecasts. Several seasonal models predict wetter conditions in January,
extending from northern Somalia to the central coast of the Red Sea. In northwestern Africa, it is rather
typical to become wetter than normal in late winter during La Niña, but there is little evidence of this in the
current forecasts. Consequently, only limited-scale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter.
Normal rainfall and small-scale breeding may occur in northwest Africa during the spring in April and May,
while below-normal rainfall is expected in southwest Asia.

Key points:

• Overview: A very small outbreak developed in Niger and continued in Sudan.
• Current situation: Groups and small bands and swarms in Sudan; scattered locusts and a few groups of hoppers and adults along the coasts of Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Egypt and Yemen; isolated adults in northwest Somalia, Oman, and India. Groups and a swarm in Niger; isolated hoppers and adults in Mauritania; few adults in Algeria.
• Forecast: Groups and a few swarms from Sudan will migrate to the Red Sea coast for winter breeding. Locusts will increase and breed in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, and Eritrea, but more rain is needed in northwest Somalia. Drying vegetation may lead to a few swarms in Niger, while some groups in northeast Mali, southern Algeria, and northwest Mauritania. Some control operations will be required.

Overview:

Subseasonal dynamical models project normal to above-normal rainfall from the central Red Sea coast to the Gulf of Aden through the end of the year, particularly during the last week of November. Seasonal models suggest that a La Niña-like dry pattern will dominate much of northern Africa and the Middle East in the coming months. This pattern is anticipated to result in below-average rainfall across the Central Region during the winter and spring seasons, except for normal precipitation along the southern Red Sea coast from Sudan and Eritrea to Yemen and northwest Somalia in January. Consequently, only limited-scale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter. In northwestern Africa, above-normal rainfall and small-scale breeding may occur during the spring, particularly in April.

Key points:

• Overview: A very small outbreak developed in Sudan.
• Current situation: Low numbers of hoppers and adults from Mauritania to Saudi Arabia and Yemen; isolated adults in Egypt, Somalia, Pakistan, and India; groups and small bands in Sudan where a very small outbreak developed in the interior at the end of October.
• Forecast: As vegetation dries out, small groups of locusts will move from Sudan to the Red Sea coast where winter breeding will commence there as well as parts of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. A few small groups could form in Mauritania and perhaps parts of Mali, Niger, and Chad. Limited control is expected in some countries. 
  

Overview:

The subseasonal dynamical models indicate below-normal rainfall in West Africa for November, while the seasonal models may suggest the opposite. A weakening of La Niña is anticipated. The main change from last month’s precipitation forecast is that wetter conditions are expected along the southern Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and northern Somalia during the rest of October and at least the first half of November according to some of the subseasonal models. Dry conditions are likely to continue in East Africa and the Near East throughout the winter, with the Arabian Peninsula likely becoming dry by January. As a result, only smallscale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter, followed by perhaps a few places in the Western, Central, and Eastern regions during the spring.

Key points:

• Overview: Good rains and vegetation but mainly only low numbers of locusts.
• Current situation: Summer rains mainly during the first two dekads of September from the northern Sahel of Mauritania to Eritrea, Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and the Indo-Pakistan border; scattered adults in parts of Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Somalia, and Pakistan; some hoppers in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen; a few small groups in Sudan and Yemen.
• Forecast: Once summer vegetation dries out, small groups of locusts will move from Sudan to the Red Sea coast where winter breeding will start earlier than usual but more rain is needed. Limited control is expected in some countries. In the Western Region, a few small groups between Mauritania and Chad.

Overview:

Based on the latest subseasonal dynamical models, there has been minimal change in the locust areas compared to last month. Above-normal rains are expected to continue from mid-September to the first week of October, mainly in the northern Sahel of Mauritania and Mali, as well as along the Indo-Pakistan border where the monsoon will withdraw. As for the seasonal models, it is anticipated that La Niña will emerge and persist, leading to drier-than-normal conditions along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden coasts during the winter. At the beginning of the spring, Northwest Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the coast of southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan can expect slightly higher rainfall than usual in March.

Key points:

• Overview: Moderate to heavy rainfall but only low numbers of locusts.
• Current situation: Summer rains continuing in August from the northern Sahel of Mauritania to Eritrea, Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Mauritania, Algeria, Chad, Yemen, and Pakistan.
• Forecast: A new generation may begin in October in Sudan and Yemen, where numbers are expected to increase significantly, and could occur in parts of the western region.

Overview:

The latest subseasonal dynamical models suggest that above-normal rains will continue from now until the
end of September in the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Yemen, as well as the Indo-Pakistan border.
However, the seasonal models predict below-normal rainfall at the end of the summer, except for western
Mauritania in November. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain mostly negative, while La Niña is
still expected to develop slowly this autumn compared to the previous month. These two events typically
result in above-normal summer rains in the Sahel and along the Indo-Pakistan border. The winter breeding
areas along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are expected to become generally drier than normal, except along
southeast Egypt and northeast Sudan in December and January, followed by normal conditions from Eritrea
to Egypt in February.

Key points:

• Overview: summer rains improving;
• Current situation: summer rains continuing in July along areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Egypt, Algeria, Pakistan;
• Control: some in Sudan during July;
• Forecast: above-average rainfall will continue in August followed by a generation of breeding from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Since mid-March, the seasonal precipitation prediction for the past four months expected above-average
rainfall and favourable breeding conditions during the summer. Now all of the models have completely
reversed. The positive IOD phase is now negative and La Niña is likely to develop during the next few
months rather than El Niño. Nevertheless, normal to above-normal rains are expected during the northern
Sahel from Niger to Eritrea, across Arabia to Indo-Pakistan for August and September, and continuing during
October in Yemen. Mainly dry condition is anticipated in Mali and Mauritania. During the winter, dryness
will develop from October onwards along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden except in southeast Egypt, while
normal to above-normal rainfall may occur from November onwards in northwest Mauritania.

Key points:

• Overview: Locust numbers declined in the spring areas.
• Current situation: Summer rains began in June along areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Algeria.
• Control: Operations continued to decrease by 75% in June compared to May.
• Forecast: Above-average rainfall is expected in July and August followed by a generation of breeding from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border.
  

 

Overview:

Similar to the last few months, the seasonal precipitation prediction continues to suggest above-normal rainfall for July to September/October throughout the summer from Mauritania to western Eritrea, the interior of Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. The models indicate a connection between the developing La Niña in the northern Sahel and above-average rainfall in Pakistan and India, despite a slight decrease in the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During winter, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts will see below-normal rainfall occurring earlier than usual, except for Yemen and southern Eritrea which could experience above-normal rain in October and November.

Key points:

• Overview: Outbreaks finished during the last winter and spring.
• Current situation: One generation of limited spring breeding in Saudi Arabia and Egypt; low numbers of locus in Yemen and northern Somalia.
• Control: Operations continued to decrease by 50% in May compared to April.
• June: Above-average rainfall is expected to start at the end of June in the summer breeding areas of northern Sahel from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border; there is a risk of cyclones in June along the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea.
  

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models are nearly the same as last month regarding the above-normal rainfall from eastern Africa across the Arabian Peninsula to northwest India from June through September. The models expect a rare combination of La Niña developing quickly and IOD being significantly positive. In addition, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea may experience heightened cyclone activity in May and June. Indo-Pakistan is likely to experience an active and slightly above-normal monsoon starting at the end of June this year. In West Africa, above-normal rain is likely to start around July in Niger and Chad but could be delayed until August in Mauritania and Mali. The models predict below-normal rainfall for October and November along the Red Sea coast at the beginning of winter.