2022: Global food basket prices on the rise

The FAO Food Price Index rose to record high in February. Vegetable oils and dairy products lead the increase. 

The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 140.7 points in February 2022, up 5.3 points (3.9 percent) from January and as much as 24.1 points (20.7 percent) above its level a year earlier. This represents a new all-time high, exceeding the previous top of February 2011 by 3.1 points.  

The index growth in February was due to a significant increase in vegetable oils and dairy products sub-indices price. Cereals and meat were also affected, with sugar prices continuing to decline for the third consecutive month. 

• The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 144.8 points in February, up 4.2 points (3.0 percent) from January and 18.7 points (14.8 percent) from one year ago. In February, prices of all major cereals increased from their respective values last month. World wheat prices rose by 2.1 percent, while the export prices for coarse grains rose by 4.7 percent. 

• The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 201.7 points in February, up 15.8 points (8.5 percent) month-on-month, marking a new record high. This price growth is mainly due to an increase in palm, soy, and sunflower oil quotations. International sunflower oil prices also increased markedly, in the context of concerns over the disruptions in the Black Sea region. The surge in oil prices has also contributed to an increase in global quotations for the full range of vegetable oils, increasing both transport costs and the popularity of biofuel raw materials. 

• The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 141.1 points in February, up 8.5 points (6.4 percent) from January, marking the sixth successive monthly increase and placing the index 28.0 points (24.8 percent) above its value in the corresponding month last year. 

• The FAO Meat Price Index* averaged 112.8 points in February, up 1.2 points (1.1 percent) month-on-month and 15.0 points (15.3 percent) from its level a year ago. In February, international bovine meat quotations reached a new record high. 

• The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 110.6 points in February, down 2.1 points (1.9 percent) from January, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and reaching its lowest level since last July. Favourable production prospects in major exporting countries continued to weight on world sugar prices. 

Looking ahead to the 2022 crop outturn, preliminary FAO projections suggest that gross cereal production in 2022 will continue to rise for a fourth consecutive year and could reach 790 million tonnes.

In the Russian Federation, an improvement in weather conditions following early seasonal dryness is likely to foster a yearly increase in yields and, provisionally, production in 2022 is forecast at 82 million tonnes. 

A contraction in the wheat planted area in Ukraine is foreseen to result in a production decline this year; nonetheless, the outturn in 2022 is still forecast to remain slightly above the five-year average. 

FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 has been raised month-on-month to 484 million tonnes, up 2.7 million tonnes from the previous forecast and 0.9 percent (4.5 million tonnes) above the 2020/21 level.  

For the remainder of the 2021/22 season (March 1 – June 30), Ukraine is forecast to export approximately 6 million tonnes of wheat and 16 million tonnes of maize, while the Russian Federation is forecast to export approximately 8 million tonnes of wheat and 2.5 million tonnes of maize. FAO is closely monitoring the developments and will assess the impacts on the 2021/22 global cereal trade in due course. [i]

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