FAO Moscow experts: origins of and solutions to food crisis

On 16 May, Oleg Kobiakov, Director of the FAO Liaison Office with the Russian Federation, delivered a presentation entitled “Global Food Security – Realities and Trends” at the Fourth Moscow Academic Economic Forum. 

“What does the world hunger map look like today? In 1945, when the UN, including its agricultural and food organization, was being created on the ruins of the Second World War, the world population was just over 2 billion people, of which almost half went hungry. In 2019, the number of the Earth’s inhabitants approached 8 billion and the number of chronically hungry people decreased to 690 million. It would seem that visible progress has been made. However, the achieved pace is still not enough to completely eliminate hunger by 2030,” said Oleg Kobiakov. “Moreover, during the last “pre-crisis” years, hunger “has been increasing” at a rate of 10 million people annually, having added 60 million more people over these five years.” 

“The situation with hunger in the world has worsened not at once, and not only after February 24. The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed nearly 120 million people into starvation within less than 18 months,” said the Moscow Representative of FAO. “However, the war in Ukraine has aggravated the food security situation, both in the region and globally,” he said. 

FAO predicts that “the conflict might mean that, over the next five years, 13.1 million more people compared to the number in the baseline scenario could face hunger,” continued Oleg Kobiakov. “In 2022, we expect further aggravation of the situation and emergence of mass hunger hot spots in a number of countries around the world.” 

“Wheat export forecasts for both Ukraine and the Russian Federation have been revised downwards since the beginning of the conflict. Other market participants, most notably India and the European Union, have increased their exports. This has partly offset the losses of exports from the Black Sea region, leaving a relatively modest “gap” of around 3 million tonnes,” outlined the situation Oleg Kobiakov. “However, their opportunities will soon be exhausted, as evidenced by the export restrictions recently imposed by New Delhi.”  

“Russia itself is highly dependent on imports of critical inputs,” the speaker stressed. “These are primarily plant protection products (pesticides), seeds and fertilizers. Thus, in 2021, imports of pesticides amounted to USD 872 million, seeds – to USD 409 million, fertilizers (mainly complex ones) – to USD 203 million. The total figure is almost USD 1.5 billion.”  

“The situation in Ukraine deserves special attention. The number of refugees in the country has topped 6 million, with 8 million internally displaced people (IDPs). Nearly a fifth of the population needs urgent food aid. The FAO estimates that the impact of the military conflict on its agricultural sector, which provides income for 30 percent of the population, will be very grave.”  

“In April, the UN launched a USD 1.7 billion emergency humanitarian appeal for Ukraine. Its share of “the FAO package” is USD 115 million, which will be used to support 300 000 rural households, or almost 1 million people.” 

Oleg Kobiakov concluded by pointing out four key conclusions: 

1. Russia cannot be presented as the only party responsible for the current exacerbation of the global food crisis. At the same time, the war in Ukraine has become a trigger for the aggravation of numerous issues accumulated in this area, which has barely started to recover from the pandemic.
2. Russia's projected record grain harvest (130 million tonnes, including 87 million tonnes of wheat) will not allow to make up for the drop-off in supplies to the world market due to a number of factors, primarily the inability of global supply chains to readjust themselves in such a short period, as well as the sanctions sticking points in which Russia has found itself. 
3. Sanctions and retaliatory sanctions are a dead end. Only a free and transparent commerce can lead world economy back to a normal growth.
4. It is deeply regrettable that the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine conflict and the overall regression towards SDG-2 will not allow humanity to solve hunger issues within 2030. 

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On May 16, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) together with the Synergia Foundation Indian analytical centre held the round table “Food security in the New Global Crisis”. Aghasi Arutyunyan, Deputy Director of the FAO Liaison Office with the Russian Federation,took part in the discussion. 

At the beginning of May, FAO and its partners published the new Global Food Crisis Report. According to the report, Aghasi Arutyunyan said, “conflicts continue to be the major drivers of food insecurity. Even if the analysis was conducted before the war began in Ukraine, the report concludes in saying that the countries, which are already struggling with high levels of deep hunger, are especially vulnerable to risks created by this conflict.  

In general, the key drivers behind the rise in hunger in 2021 were:

• Conflicts (the main driver of hunger for 139 million people in 24 countries compared to 99 million in 23 countries in 2020);
• Weather extreme events (over 23 million people in 8 countries compared to 7 million in 15 countries one year before);
• Economic shocks – (over 30 million people in 21 countries compared to 40 million in 17 countries in 2020, mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic fallout). 

“Globally, in the response to the rising challenges related to the national balance of payments due to the rise in food prices, FAO developed a proposal for a global Food Important Financing Facility (FIFF) to help poorer countries mitigate this sharp rise in prices,” the FAO expert continued. “This mechanism is limited to low and lower middle-income countries, which are net food importers. Among Russia’s allies, this category includes Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.” 

In his closing remarks, Aghasi Arutyunyan noted that much uncertainty remains for the coming market year. Therefore, FAO recommends the international community to:

• provide humanitarian assistance to those directly affected by the conflict as well as tovulnerable populations affected by price increases;
• ensure the openness of food, energy and fertilizer markets;
• refrain from political measures and export restrictions, which can exacerbate foodprices and undermine trust in global markets;
• evaluate the weight of sanctions: pros and cons, burdens and benefits;
• diversify supply sources;
• actively identify ways to make up for potential future gaps in global markets, workingtogether to foster sustainable productivity increases where possible;
• prevent outbreaks of diseases, epizootics and zoonoses.

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The director of the FAO Moscow Office, Oleg Kobiakov, reminded the audience about the conclusions and recommendations of the UN Food System Summit held in 2021, which showed the unity of mankind in its determination to rid the world of hunger and embark on the path of sustainable development: “At the end, only a world free from hunger will allow us to implement that vision of a peaceful, safe, healthy and complete life, which the founding fathers of the Organization of the United Nations have left us.”