FAO Global and regional consumer food inflation monitoring

Global overview
Global food consumer inflation in March and April 2014 has stabilized in the range of 5.0-5.5% (year-over-year), after a marked slowdown in the previous 3 months (from 8.0% in November 2013 to 5.0% in February 2014). Food price inflation in developing regions of Africa, Asia and Latin America tends to be significantly higher and more volatile than in the developed regions of North America and Europe (Chart 1 and Table 1). These differences are particularly acute when comparing inflation trends in Least Developed Countries (LDC) and the developed economies of the OECD (Chart 2 and Table 2).

For this release, country-level data were collated up to April 2014 to estimate regional and global indices, while these indices were forecasted for May through July. These forecasts indicate a slight recovery in annual food inflation in May, common to all regions except Europe, where food prices remain stable. In Europe and North America, where food inflation has remained unchanged or declined, food prices are expected to rise steadily in June and July, compared to the same months of 2013.

Food consumer price inflation – global and regions (year-over-year)

Source: ILO (Laborsta) for the country food CPIs, FAO Statistics Division for the calculation



FAO’s Global and Regional Food Consumer Price Indices (CPI) measure food inflation for a group of countries at different geographical scales: sub-regional (e.g.  South America), regional (e.g. Americas) and global (world, all countries). The Global Food CPI covers approximately 150 countries worldwide, representing more than 90% of the world population.

The source of data for the country CPIs are the International Labour Organization (ILO), the UN Statistics Division and websites of national statistical offices or central banks. The aggregation procedure is based on the use of population weights. We gratefully acknowledge the Statistics Division of the ILO for their methodological and technical guidance on the compilation of regional food inflation indices.

Because of significant conceptual and methodological differences involved in the compilation of national CPIs by countries around the world, any global and regional CPI aggregates should be used with caution.