Reference Date: 02-April-2025

Severe dry weather conditions curbed yield prospects of 2025 maize crop

Harvesting operations of the 2025 maize crop, that was planted in the last quarter of 2024, started in February 2025 and output is forecast below the five‑year average. Planted area is officially anticipated at 47 000 hectares, about 20 percent below the average, in line with the declining trend of the last ten years, due to the low profitability of the crop which discourages famers to plant. Severe dryness and high temperatures in the key producing central regions in the December 2024 to February 2025 period, coinciding with maturation and grain filling stages, curbed yield prospects and production is forecast to remain below the average level.

Output of 2024 wheat and oats crops estimated below average, due to reduced plantings

The 2024 wheat harvest was finalized in February and production is estimated at 1.13 million tonnes, about 8 percent below the average. Planted area is officially estimated at about 189 000 hectares, about 8.5 percent below the five‑year average, as lower year‑on‑year prices in the second quarter of 2024, compounded by rising production costs, discouraged farmers’ planting intentions. Average rainfall amounts in the key producing central regions of La Araucanía, Biobío, Maule y Ñuble from August to December 2024 provided conducive conditions for crop development and crop yields are estimated to be near the average. Heatwaves and windy conditions in January and February 2025 caused wildfires in the main cropping regions, but only limited damages were reported on wheat crops as harvesting operations were already nearing completion.

Harvesting of the 2024 oats crops is nearing completion. Planted area was officially estimated about 8 and 30 percent higher than 2022 and 2023 levels, despite remaining below average. Dry weather conditions in the second quarter of 2024 in the main producing region of La Araucanía, where half of plantings is concentrated, had a negative impact on crop development and curtailed yields. As a result, the output of the 2024 oats crop is estimated at a below‑average level of 318 000 tonnes.

Overall, 2024 aggregate cereal production is estimated at a below‑average level of 2.4 million tonnes, reflecting a reduction in plantings of wheat, oats and maize.

Cereal import requirements for 2024/25 marketing year anticipated at below‑average level

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are estimated at average 3.8 million tonnes. Wheat import requirements are anticipated to decline for the third consecutive year in line with the shrinking demand by the salmon farming industry. By contrast, maize imports are forecast at an above‑average level due to high demand by the poultry and swine sectors.

Retail prices of rice above year‑earlier levels in February 2025

Retail prices of rice were stable in the second half of 2024 and in the first two months of 2025, but were about 25 percent higher year‑on‑year, in line with the high international prices in Paraguay and Argentina, the main exporting partners. In retail markets, prices of bread were nearly unchanged from October 2024 to February 2025 and were about 2 percent above their year‑earlier level. With the end of the harvest in September 2024, retail prices of potatoes declined continuously for five consecutive months, reflecting the large domestic supply due to the above‑average output and they were about 10 percent below their level of the previous year.

After declining in December 2024 and January 2025, wholesale prices of wheat exhibited a slight increase in February, reflecting the limited impact of wildfires on the ongoing harvest. Wheat prices in February 2025 were about 12 percent higher year‑on‑year, due to the reduced market availability caused by below‑average imports and production in 2024.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .