Reference Date: 11-December-2025

Outputs of wheat and oat anticipated at below‑average level in 2025 due to low plantings

Harvesting operations of 2025 wheat and oat crops are expected to start in December 2025. Adequate precipitation amounts from September to November 2025 in key producing regions of Araucanía, Bío Bío and Ñuble, provided conducive conditions for crop development and boosted yield prospects. However, output of wheat is anticipated at about a 10 percent below‑average level of 1.1 million tonnes, as low international quotations, high input costs and low profitability of grains discouraged plantings. Similarly, oat outturn is forecast at a below‑average level of 465 000 tonnes as low domestic demand and ample availability from the 2024 large production pressured prices downward, resulting in a reduction in the area planted.

Downward trend of maize production forecast to persist in 2026

The 2026 maize planting was completed in November 2025. Weather conditions favoured crop emergence and early development stages in the main producing regions of O’Higgins and Maule, where about 65 percent of maize is cultivated. Output is early forecast at about 15 percent below the average, reflecting low plantings. This is in line with a downward trend in maize planted area over the last ten years, due to the low profitability of grains.

Cereal import requirements for 2025/26 forecast at near five‑year average level

Cereal imports cover about 60 percent of total consumption needs. In the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March), cereal import requirements are anticipated at a near‑average level of 4.0 million tonnes, mainly reflecting stable maize and wheat import demand from poultry, swine and salmon industries.

Wheat prices in October 2025 higher year‑on‑year, mainly driven by limited domestic‑availability

In October 2025, wholesale prices of wheat showed a slight monthly decline, ahead of the start of the harvest in December. Compared to the previous year, prices where about 6 percent higher, after increasing steadily from January to September 2025 due to limited availability on domestic markets after two years of below‑average production and imports.

In retail markets, rice prices declined steadily from April to October 2025, when they were almost 10 percent lower on a yearly basis, in line with declining international quotations. Bread prices have been mostly stable since May 2025 and they were higher than the previous year in October 2025, reflecting the strengthened price of wheat grains as well as higher production and transport costs. Prices of potatoes were about 50 percent lower than their year‑earlier level in October 2025, after declining continuously across the year due to the ample supply from the large domestic production in 2025.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .